Forecast models from the National Weather Service and GFS runs indicate a high near the seasonal normal of 77–78°F for New York City on September 12, 2026, driven by moderate southerly flow under increasing cloud cover and a slight chance of light drizzle that limits afternoon heating. Recent observations show September 11 highs reaching the low 80s before a shift to more stable conditions, keeping today’s peak from exceeding the mid- to upper 70s in most guidance. This consensus aligns with the market’s strong weighting toward 78–79°F, while the modest probability on 80–81°F reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Historical analogs for early September confirm that deviations above 82°F are rare without stronger warm advection, supporting the compressed range around the average.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 12?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 12?
78-79°F 62%
76-77°F 24%
80-81°F 14%
74-75°F 3%
NEW
$14,907 Vol.
NEW
$14,907 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
24%
78-79°F
62%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 62%
76-77°F 24%
80-81°F 14%
74-75°F 3%
NEW
$14,907 Vol.
NEW
$14,907 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
69°F or below
$194 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$354 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$711 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,307 Vol.
3%
76-77°F
$3,435 Vol.
24%
78-79°F
$4,245 Vol.
62%
80-81°F
$2,278 Vol.
14%
82-83°F
$1,202 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$422 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$302 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$457 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and GFS runs indicate a high near the seasonal normal of 77–78°F for New York City on September 12, 2026, driven by moderate southerly flow under increasing cloud cover and a slight chance of light drizzle that limits afternoon heating. Recent observations show September 11 highs reaching the low 80s before a shift to more stable conditions, keeping today’s peak from exceeding the mid- to upper 70s in most guidance. This consensus aligns with the market’s strong weighting toward 78–79°F, while the modest probability on 80–81°F reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Historical analogs for early September confirm that deviations above 82°F are rare without stronger warm advection, supporting the compressed range around the average.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
Volume
$14,907End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and GFS runs indicate a high near the seasonal normal of 77–78°F for New York City on September 12, 2026, driven by moderate southerly flow under increasing cloud cover and a slight chance of light drizzle that limits afternoon heating. Recent observations show September 11 highs reaching the low 80s before a shift to more stable conditions, keeping today’s peak from exceeding the mid- to upper 70s in most guidance. This consensus aligns with the market’s strong weighting toward 78–79°F, while the modest probability on 80–81°F reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Historical analogs for early September confirm that deviations above 82°F are rare without stronger warm advection, supporting the compressed range around the average.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,907End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service and GFS runs indicate a high near the seasonal normal of 77–78°F for New York City on September 12, 2026, driven by moderate southerly flow under increasing cloud cover and a slight chance of light drizzle that limits afternoon heating. Recent observations show September 11 highs reaching the low 80s before a shift to more stable conditions, keeping today’s peak from exceeding the mid- to upper 70s in most guidance. This consensus aligns with the market’s strong weighting toward 78–79°F, while the modest probability on 80–81°F reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Historical analogs for early September confirm that deviations above 82°F are rare without stronger warm advection, supporting the compressed range around the average.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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