Latest forecast models from major agencies show a high temperature near 80-82°F for New York City on September 13, driven by a southerly flow advecting warmer air while increasing cloud cover and widespread rain suppress maximum readings. This aligns with the market's leading 80-81°F bin, as precipitation timing and intensity introduce uncertainty in peak values, with historical September averages around 77.5°F providing context for the above-normal but moderated outcome. Traders weigh ensemble consensus against potential model shifts in steering patterns or rainfall onset that could push readings into adjacent bins like 78-79°F or 82-83°F. Updated National Weather Service guidance and next model cycles will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 13?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 13?
80-81°F 32%
78-79°F 31%
76-77°F 16%
82-83°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
73°F or below
2%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
31%
80-81°F
32%
82-83°F
12%
84-85°F
5%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
2%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 32%
78-79°F 31%
76-77°F 16%
82-83°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$66 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$755 Vol.
16%
78-79°F
$231 Vol.
31%
80-81°F
$144 Vol.
32%
82-83°F
$428 Vol.
12%
84-85°F
$593 Vol.
5%
86-87°F
$25 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
2%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
1%
92°F or higher
$51 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models from major agencies show a high temperature near 80-82°F for New York City on September 13, driven by a southerly flow advecting warmer air while increasing cloud cover and widespread rain suppress maximum readings. This aligns with the market's leading 80-81°F bin, as precipitation timing and intensity introduce uncertainty in peak values, with historical September averages around 77.5°F providing context for the above-normal but moderated outcome. Traders weigh ensemble consensus against potential model shifts in steering patterns or rainfall onset that could push readings into adjacent bins like 78-79°F or 82-83°F. Updated National Weather Service guidance and next model cycles will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
Volume
$2,293End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast models from major agencies show a high temperature near 80-82°F for New York City on September 13, driven by a southerly flow advecting warmer air while increasing cloud cover and widespread rain suppress maximum readings. This aligns with the market's leading 80-81°F bin, as precipitation timing and intensity introduce uncertainty in peak values, with historical September averages around 77.5°F providing context for the above-normal but moderated outcome. Traders weigh ensemble consensus against potential model shifts in steering patterns or rainfall onset that could push readings into adjacent bins like 78-79°F or 82-83°F. Updated National Weather Service guidance and next model cycles will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,293End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast models from major agencies show a high temperature near 80-82°F for New York City on September 13, driven by a southerly flow advecting warmer air while increasing cloud cover and widespread rain suppress maximum readings. This aligns with the market's leading 80-81°F bin, as precipitation timing and intensity introduce uncertainty in peak values, with historical September averages around 77.5°F providing context for the above-normal but moderated outcome. Traders weigh ensemble consensus against potential model shifts in steering patterns or rainfall onset that could push readings into adjacent bins like 78-79°F or 82-83°F. Updated National Weather Service guidance and next model cycles will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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