Recent forecasts for São Paulo indicate a daytime high likely between 21–25°C on September 12, with model runs showing notable spread due to variable cloud cover, scattered showers, and shifting winds that limit solar heating. Official guidance from sources like the Met Office points to a 24°C maximum amid overcast conditions and light precipitation, while other analyses reach 25–26°C during brief clear periods before rain arrives. This scientific uncertainty—driven by atmospheric moisture, frontal boundaries, and diurnal temperature swings—explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 22–24°C, as traders weigh resolution criteria against incoming observational data and updated model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 12?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 12?
24°C 30%
23°C 25%
22°C 14%
25°C 14%
NEW
$13,678 Vol.
NEW
$13,678 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
3%
21°C
9%
22°C
14%
23°C
25%
24°C
30%
25°C
14%
26°C
5%
27°C
3%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 30%
23°C 25%
22°C 14%
25°C 14%
NEW
$13,678 Vol.
NEW
$13,678 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
19°C or below
$1,137 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,452 Vol.
3%
21°C
$2,361 Vol.
9%
22°C
$1,716 Vol.
14%
23°C
$1,266 Vol.
25%
24°C
$1,803 Vol.
30%
25°C
$1,953 Vol.
14%
26°C
$801 Vol.
5%
27°C
$605 Vol.
3%
28°C
$137 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$446 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for São Paulo indicate a daytime high likely between 21–25°C on September 12, with model runs showing notable spread due to variable cloud cover, scattered showers, and shifting winds that limit solar heating. Official guidance from sources like the Met Office points to a 24°C maximum amid overcast conditions and light precipitation, while other analyses reach 25–26°C during brief clear periods before rain arrives. This scientific uncertainty—driven by atmospheric moisture, frontal boundaries, and diurnal temperature swings—explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 22–24°C, as traders weigh resolution criteria against incoming observational data and updated model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$13,678End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for São Paulo indicate a daytime high likely between 21–25°C on September 12, with model runs showing notable spread due to variable cloud cover, scattered showers, and shifting winds that limit solar heating. Official guidance from sources like the Met Office points to a 24°C maximum amid overcast conditions and light precipitation, while other analyses reach 25–26°C during brief clear periods before rain arrives. This scientific uncertainty—driven by atmospheric moisture, frontal boundaries, and diurnal temperature swings—explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 22–24°C, as traders weigh resolution criteria against incoming observational data and updated model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,678End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for São Paulo indicate a daytime high likely between 21–25°C on September 12, with model runs showing notable spread due to variable cloud cover, scattered showers, and shifting winds that limit solar heating. Official guidance from sources like the Met Office points to a 24°C maximum amid overcast conditions and light precipitation, while other analyses reach 25–26°C during brief clear periods before rain arrives. This scientific uncertainty—driven by atmospheric moisture, frontal boundaries, and diurnal temperature swings—explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 22–24°C, as traders weigh resolution criteria against incoming observational data and updated model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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