Recent model consensus from sources including INMET and international forecasts points to a frontal passage bringing cooler, unstable air and showers to São Paulo on September 12, with overnight lows most likely settling between 15–17°C. This aligns with early-spring climatology and follows several warmer days, though model spread creates uncertainty around exact minimums and whether localized cooling could push readings lower. Trader positioning reflects this balance, with meaningful implied probability on mid-teens outcomes alongside higher-temperature buckets, as updated runs and official guidance on timing of the coolest hours will likely refine sentiment ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 12?
22°C or higher 97%
19°C 38%
16°C 32%
17°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
12°C or below
29%
13°C
17%
14°C
17%
15°C
30%
16°C
32%
17°C
32%
18°C
19%
19°C
38%
20°C
29%
21°C
17%
22°C or higher
97%
22°C or higher 97%
19°C 38%
16°C 32%
17°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
29%
13°C
$0 Vol.
17%
14°C
$0 Vol.
17%
15°C
$0 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
32%
17°C
$0 Vol.
32%
18°C
$41 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
38%
20°C
$0 Vol.
29%
21°C
$0 Vol.
17%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including INMET and international forecasts points to a frontal passage bringing cooler, unstable air and showers to São Paulo on September 12, with overnight lows most likely settling between 15–17°C. This aligns with early-spring climatology and follows several warmer days, though model spread creates uncertainty around exact minimums and whether localized cooling could push readings lower. Trader positioning reflects this balance, with meaningful implied probability on mid-teens outcomes alongside higher-temperature buckets, as updated runs and official guidance on timing of the coolest hours will likely refine sentiment ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 8:28 AM ET
Volume
$41End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including INMET and international forecasts points to a frontal passage bringing cooler, unstable air and showers to São Paulo on September 12, with overnight lows most likely settling between 15–17°C. This aligns with early-spring climatology and follows several warmer days, though model spread creates uncertainty around exact minimums and whether localized cooling could push readings lower. Trader positioning reflects this balance, with meaningful implied probability on mid-teens outcomes alongside higher-temperature buckets, as updated runs and official guidance on timing of the coolest hours will likely refine sentiment ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$41End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including INMET and international forecasts points to a frontal passage bringing cooler, unstable air and showers to São Paulo on September 12, with overnight lows most likely settling between 15–17°C. This aligns with early-spring climatology and follows several warmer days, though model spread creates uncertainty around exact minimums and whether localized cooling could push readings lower. Trader positioning reflects this balance, with meaningful implied probability on mid-teens outcomes alongside higher-temperature buckets, as updated runs and official guidance on timing of the coolest hours will likely refine sentiment ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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