**Official meteorological observations from São Paulo stations recorded a minimum air temperature of 16°C on September 11, 2026, aligning closely with pre-event model consensus and driving the 95% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Early-spring conditions featured clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds that permitted efficient nocturnal radiative cooling, with temperatures bottoming out in the pre-dawn hours before daytime heating pushed highs near 29°C. This matches climatological expectations for the period, when average lows hover around 15–17°C. Updated forecast guidance from agencies such as the Brazilian meteorological service reinforced the 16°C threshold without significant downward revisions. While alternative stations or microclimate variations could theoretically register 15°C or lower, the standardized reporting criteria and tight clustering of observations around 16°C left little room for resolution uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 11?
16°C 95%
15°C 33%
14°C or below 14.0%
17°C <1%
$1,402 Vol.
$1,402 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
14%
15°C
33%
16°C
95%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
16°C 95%
15°C 33%
14°C or below 14.0%
17°C <1%
$1,402 Vol.
$1,402 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
$65 Vol.
14%
15°C
$90 Vol.
33%
16°C
$344 Vol.
95%
17°C
$372 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$243 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$104 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$40 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official meteorological observations from São Paulo stations recorded a minimum air temperature of 16°C on September 11, 2026, aligning closely with pre-event model consensus and driving the 95% market-implied probability for that outcome.**
Early-spring conditions featured clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds that permitted efficient nocturnal radiative cooling, with temperatures bottoming out in the pre-dawn hours before daytime heating pushed highs near 29°C. This matches climatological expectations for the period, when average lows hover around 15–17°C. Updated forecast guidance from agencies such as the Brazilian meteorological service reinforced the 16°C threshold without significant downward revisions. While alternative stations or microclimate variations could theoretically register 15°C or lower, the standardized reporting criteria and tight clustering of observations around 16°C left little room for resolution uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,402End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official meteorological observations from São Paulo stations recorded a minimum air temperature of 16°C on September 11, 2026, aligning closely with pre-event model consensus and driving the 95% market-implied probability for that outcome.**
Early-spring conditions featured clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds that permitted efficient nocturnal radiative cooling, with temperatures bottoming out in the pre-dawn hours before daytime heating pushed highs near 29°C. This matches climatological expectations for the period, when average lows hover around 15–17°C. Updated forecast guidance from agencies such as the Brazilian meteorological service reinforced the 16°C threshold without significant downward revisions. While alternative stations or microclimate variations could theoretically register 15°C or lower, the standardized reporting criteria and tight clustering of observations around 16°C left little room for resolution uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,402End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official meteorological observations from São Paulo stations recorded a minimum air temperature of 16°C on September 11, 2026, aligning closely with pre-event model consensus and driving the 95% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Early-spring conditions featured clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds that permitted efficient nocturnal radiative cooling, with temperatures bottoming out in the pre-dawn hours before daytime heating pushed highs near 29°C. This matches climatological expectations for the period, when average lows hover around 15–17°C. Updated forecast guidance from agencies such as the Brazilian meteorological service reinforced the 16°C threshold without significant downward revisions. While alternative stations or microclimate variations could theoretically register 15°C or lower, the standardized reporting criteria and tight clustering of observations around 16°C left little room for resolution uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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