**Trader consensus strongly favors a 72-73°F minimum in Los Angeles on September 11, 2026, at 92.5% implied probability, reflecting official National Weather Service observations from Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) and surrounding stations showing overnight lows in that narrow range.** Warm conditions persisted due to a regional heat event with daytime highs reaching the low 90s°F, light winds, and limited marine-layer cooling that kept minimum temperatures elevated well above the long-term September average low of approximately 64°F. Forecast models and preliminary climatological data (CF6 reports) aligned closely with this outcome, with nearby readings around 70-75°F and no significant cooling events overnight. While the market-implied odds indicate high confidence in the official reading, minor discrepancies could arise from exact station siting, timing of the daily minimum, or post-analysis adjustments by NOAA, though such revisions are uncommon for this threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 11?
72-73°F 93%
68-69°F 30%
70-71°F 14%
66-67°F 5.0%
$1,471 Vol.
$1,471 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
61°F or below
1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
3%
66-67°F
5%
68-69°F
30%
70-71°F
14%
72-73°F
93%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80°F or higher
<1%
72-73°F 93%
68-69°F 30%
70-71°F 14%
66-67°F 5.0%
$1,471 Vol.
$1,471 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
61°F or below
$70 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$155 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$170 Vol.
3%
66-67°F
$185 Vol.
5%
68-69°F
$20 Vol.
30%
70-71°F
$19 Vol.
14%
72-73°F
$121 Vol.
93%
74-75°F
$281 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$390 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$30 Vol.
<1%
80°F or higher
$30 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 72-73°F minimum in Los Angeles on September 11, 2026, at 92.5% implied probability, reflecting official National Weather Service observations from Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) and surrounding stations showing overnight lows in that narrow range.**
Warm conditions persisted due to a regional heat event with daytime highs reaching the low 90s°F, light winds, and limited marine-layer cooling that kept minimum temperatures elevated well above the long-term September average low of approximately 64°F. Forecast models and preliminary climatological data (CF6 reports) aligned closely with this outcome, with nearby readings around 70-75°F and no significant cooling events overnight.
While the market-implied odds indicate high confidence in the official reading, minor discrepancies could arise from exact station siting, timing of the daily minimum, or post-analysis adjustments by NOAA, though such revisions are uncommon for this threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,471End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 72-73°F minimum in Los Angeles on September 11, 2026, at 92.5% implied probability, reflecting official National Weather Service observations from Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) and surrounding stations showing overnight lows in that narrow range.**
Warm conditions persisted due to a regional heat event with daytime highs reaching the low 90s°F, light winds, and limited marine-layer cooling that kept minimum temperatures elevated well above the long-term September average low of approximately 64°F. Forecast models and preliminary climatological data (CF6 reports) aligned closely with this outcome, with nearby readings around 70-75°F and no significant cooling events overnight.
While the market-implied odds indicate high confidence in the official reading, minor discrepancies could arise from exact station siting, timing of the daily minimum, or post-analysis adjustments by NOAA, though such revisions are uncommon for this threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,471End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors a 72-73°F minimum in Los Angeles on September 11, 2026, at 92.5% implied probability, reflecting official National Weather Service observations from Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) and surrounding stations showing overnight lows in that narrow range.** Warm conditions persisted due to a regional heat event with daytime highs reaching the low 90s°F, light winds, and limited marine-layer cooling that kept minimum temperatures elevated well above the long-term September average low of approximately 64°F. Forecast models and preliminary climatological data (CF6 reports) aligned closely with this outcome, with nearby readings around 70-75°F and no significant cooling events overnight. While the market-implied odds indicate high confidence in the official reading, minor discrepancies could arise from exact station siting, timing of the daily minimum, or post-analysis adjustments by NOAA, though such revisions are uncommon for this threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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