Current National Weather Service and model guidance points to a minimum temperature near 69–71°F in downtown Los Angeles and at LAX on September 12, driven by a persistent marine layer and onshore southwest flow that limits nocturnal cooling. Patchy fog and low stratus expected after midnight will further suppress radiative heat loss while elevated dew points near 65°F maintain mild conditions. This aligns with the market’s strong 68.5% implied probability on 70–71°F, above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 64°F. Recent model runs show little spread, with only minor adjustments possible from exact fog timing or wind shifts before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 12?
70-71°F 76%
66-67°F 24%
72-73°F 21%
76-77°F 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
59°F or below
2%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
13%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
24%
68-69°F
12%
70-71°F
69%
72-73°F
21%
74-75°F
16%
76-77°F
21%
78°F or higher
2%
70-71°F 76%
66-67°F 24%
72-73°F 21%
76-77°F 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
59°F or below
$0 Vol.
2%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
3%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
13%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
13%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
24%
68-69°F
$47 Vol.
12%
70-71°F
$295 Vol.
69%
72-73°F
$238 Vol.
21%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
16%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
21%
78°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and model guidance points to a minimum temperature near 69–71°F in downtown Los Angeles and at LAX on September 12, driven by a persistent marine layer and onshore southwest flow that limits nocturnal cooling. Patchy fog and low stratus expected after midnight will further suppress radiative heat loss while elevated dew points near 65°F maintain mild conditions. This aligns with the market’s strong 68.5% implied probability on 70–71°F, above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 64°F. Recent model runs show little spread, with only minor adjustments possible from exact fog timing or wind shifts before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$581End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and model guidance points to a minimum temperature near 69–71°F in downtown Los Angeles and at LAX on September 12, driven by a persistent marine layer and onshore southwest flow that limits nocturnal cooling. Patchy fog and low stratus expected after midnight will further suppress radiative heat loss while elevated dew points near 65°F maintain mild conditions. This aligns with the market’s strong 68.5% implied probability on 70–71°F, above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 64°F. Recent model runs show little spread, with only minor adjustments possible from exact fog timing or wind shifts before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$581End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and model guidance points to a minimum temperature near 69–71°F in downtown Los Angeles and at LAX on September 12, driven by a persistent marine layer and onshore southwest flow that limits nocturnal cooling. Patchy fog and low stratus expected after midnight will further suppress radiative heat loss while elevated dew points near 65°F maintain mild conditions. This aligns with the market’s strong 68.5% implied probability on 70–71°F, above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 64°F. Recent model runs show little spread, with only minor adjustments possible from exact fog timing or wind shifts before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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