Forecast models from the National Weather Service and GFS consensus indicate Miami's overnight low on September 12 will most likely settle in the upper 70s to low 80s, driven by persistent tropical moisture, light southeast winds, and scattered thunderstorm activity that limits radiational cooling. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for the region, where daily lows rarely drop below 78°F absent a stronger frontal passage. Recent model runs show minimal spread, supporting the market's heaviest implied probability on the 80-81°F bin, followed by 78-79°F, while lower bins reflect only modest downside risk if convection clears earlier than expected. Traders are weighting these outcomes against ongoing high humidity and heat indices above 100°F during the day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Miami on September 12?
78-79°F 39%
80-81°F 38%
76-77°F 15%
84-85°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
36%
80-81°F
38%
82-83°F
5%
84-85°F
6%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 39%
80-81°F 38%
76-77°F 15%
84-85°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
73°F or below
$247 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$14 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$901 Vol.
16%
78-79°F
$353 Vol.
36%
80-81°F
$472 Vol.
38%
82-83°F
$93 Vol.
5%
84-85°F
$30 Vol.
6%
86-87°F
$174 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$501 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$72 Vol.
<1%
92°F or higher
$72 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and GFS consensus indicate Miami's overnight low on September 12 will most likely settle in the upper 70s to low 80s, driven by persistent tropical moisture, light southeast winds, and scattered thunderstorm activity that limits radiational cooling. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for the region, where daily lows rarely drop below 78°F absent a stronger frontal passage. Recent model runs show minimal spread, supporting the market's heaviest implied probability on the 80-81°F bin, followed by 78-79°F, while lower bins reflect only modest downside risk if convection clears earlier than expected. Traders are weighting these outcomes against ongoing high humidity and heat indices above 100°F during the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,928End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and GFS consensus indicate Miami's overnight low on September 12 will most likely settle in the upper 70s to low 80s, driven by persistent tropical moisture, light southeast winds, and scattered thunderstorm activity that limits radiational cooling. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for the region, where daily lows rarely drop below 78°F absent a stronger frontal passage. Recent model runs show minimal spread, supporting the market's heaviest implied probability on the 80-81°F bin, followed by 78-79°F, while lower bins reflect only modest downside risk if convection clears earlier than expected. Traders are weighting these outcomes against ongoing high humidity and heat indices above 100°F during the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,928End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service and GFS consensus indicate Miami's overnight low on September 12 will most likely settle in the upper 70s to low 80s, driven by persistent tropical moisture, light southeast winds, and scattered thunderstorm activity that limits radiational cooling. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for the region, where daily lows rarely drop below 78°F absent a stronger frontal passage. Recent model runs show minimal spread, supporting the market's heaviest implied probability on the 80-81°F bin, followed by 78-79°F, while lower bins reflect only modest downside risk if convection clears earlier than expected. Traders are weighting these outcomes against ongoing high humidity and heat indices above 100°F during the day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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