Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private providers converge on a sunny, high-pressure pattern over North Texas on September 12, 2026, supporting daytime maxima near 100–102 °F and positioning the 100–101 °F bin as the leading market outcome at 50.5 % implied probability. Persistent subsidence beneath a strong surface ridge suppresses cloud cover and vertical mixing, while light southerly winds advect warm, humid Gulf air that elevates heat indices above 105 °F. With September climatological normals around 91 °F and only modest model spread, traders assign 28.5 % to the 102–103 °F range and far lower odds to cooler or record-tier outcomes. Updated guidance through midday shows no significant cooling signals before peak heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on September 12?
Highest temperature in Dallas on September 12?
100-101°F 51%
102-103°F 29%
104-105°F 8%
98-99°F 7%
NEW
$16,989 Vol.
NEW
$16,989 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
3%
98-99°F
7%
100-101°F
51%
102-103°F
29%
104-105°F
8%
106-107°F
4%
108°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 51%
102-103°F 29%
104-105°F 8%
98-99°F 7%
NEW
$16,989 Vol.
NEW
$16,989 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
89°F or below
$453 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$886 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$767 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$493 Vol.
2%
96-97°F
$832 Vol.
3%
98-99°F
$4,816 Vol.
7%
100-101°F
$4,984 Vol.
51%
102-103°F
$2,011 Vol.
29%
104-105°F
$853 Vol.
8%
106-107°F
$505 Vol.
4%
108°F or higher
$391 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private providers converge on a sunny, high-pressure pattern over North Texas on September 12, 2026, supporting daytime maxima near 100–102 °F and positioning the 100–101 °F bin as the leading market outcome at 50.5 % implied probability. Persistent subsidence beneath a strong surface ridge suppresses cloud cover and vertical mixing, while light southerly winds advect warm, humid Gulf air that elevates heat indices above 105 °F. With September climatological normals around 91 °F and only modest model spread, traders assign 28.5 % to the 102–103 °F range and far lower odds to cooler or record-tier outcomes. Updated guidance through midday shows no significant cooling signals before peak heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$16,989End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private providers converge on a sunny, high-pressure pattern over North Texas on September 12, 2026, supporting daytime maxima near 100–102 °F and positioning the 100–101 °F bin as the leading market outcome at 50.5 % implied probability. Persistent subsidence beneath a strong surface ridge suppresses cloud cover and vertical mixing, while light southerly winds advect warm, humid Gulf air that elevates heat indices above 105 °F. With September climatological normals around 91 °F and only modest model spread, traders assign 28.5 % to the 102–103 °F range and far lower odds to cooler or record-tier outcomes. Updated guidance through midday shows no significant cooling signals before peak heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,989End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private providers converge on a sunny, high-pressure pattern over North Texas on September 12, 2026, supporting daytime maxima near 100–102 °F and positioning the 100–101 °F bin as the leading market outcome at 50.5 % implied probability. Persistent subsidence beneath a strong surface ridge suppresses cloud cover and vertical mixing, while light southerly winds advect warm, humid Gulf air that elevates heat indices above 105 °F. With September climatological normals around 91 °F and only modest model spread, traders assign 28.5 % to the 102–103 °F range and far lower odds to cooler or record-tier outcomes. Updated guidance through midday shows no significant cooling signals before peak heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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