Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows in Ankara on September 17 will likely fall to 13–15°C amid expected rain and thunderstorms, which enhance radiational cooling after sunset at the city's roughly 890 m elevation. This setup, combined with northeasterly flow and high humidity, supports the market's heaviest weighting toward 11°C or below as the leading outcome. Historical September minima near 14–16°C provide context, yet recent cooler nights (including an 11.1°C reading on the 15th) and model consensus for increased cloud cover and precipitation have shifted trader sentiment toward the lower end of the distribution. Updated National Meteorological Service guidance and evening model runs tomorrow will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 17?
11°C or below 86%
13°C 48%
14°C 22%
15°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
11°C or below
86%
12°C
21%
13°C
26%
14°C
22%
15°C
22%
16°C
21%
17°C
11%
18°C
9%
19°C
3%
20°C
1%
21°C or higher
1%
11°C or below 86%
13°C 48%
14°C 22%
15°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
86%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$13 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
22%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
11%
18°C
$0 Vol.
9%
19°C
$0 Vol.
3%
20°C
$16 Vol.
1%
21°C or higher
$16 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows in Ankara on September 17 will likely fall to 13–15°C amid expected rain and thunderstorms, which enhance radiational cooling after sunset at the city's roughly 890 m elevation. This setup, combined with northeasterly flow and high humidity, supports the market's heaviest weighting toward 11°C or below as the leading outcome. Historical September minima near 14–16°C provide context, yet recent cooler nights (including an 11.1°C reading on the 15th) and model consensus for increased cloud cover and precipitation have shifted trader sentiment toward the lower end of the distribution. Updated National Meteorological Service guidance and evening model runs tomorrow will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$45End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows in Ankara on September 17 will likely fall to 13–15°C amid expected rain and thunderstorms, which enhance radiational cooling after sunset at the city's roughly 890 m elevation. This setup, combined with northeasterly flow and high humidity, supports the market's heaviest weighting toward 11°C or below as the leading outcome. Historical September minima near 14–16°C provide context, yet recent cooler nights (including an 11.1°C reading on the 15th) and model consensus for increased cloud cover and precipitation have shifted trader sentiment toward the lower end of the distribution. Updated National Meteorological Service guidance and evening model runs tomorrow will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$45End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate overnight lows in Ankara on September 17 will likely fall to 13–15°C amid expected rain and thunderstorms, which enhance radiational cooling after sunset at the city's roughly 890 m elevation. This setup, combined with northeasterly flow and high humidity, supports the market's heaviest weighting toward 11°C or below as the leading outcome. Historical September minima near 14–16°C provide context, yet recent cooler nights (including an 11.1°C reading on the 15th) and model consensus for increased cloud cover and precipitation have shifted trader sentiment toward the lower end of the distribution. Updated National Meteorological Service guidance and evening model runs tomorrow will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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