Recent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models place Wuhan's overnight low on September 13 near 22–24°C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds, supporting the closely matched market-implied odds around 20–25°C. Stable high-pressure conditions favor moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 31–34°C, though urban heat retention and minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture create a several-degree uncertainty band typical of short-range temperature predictions. Traders appear to weigh the consensus central tendency against tail risks of slightly cooler or warmer outcomes driven by small changes in cloud cover or wind. Updated model runs from the China Meteorological Administration and international centers will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wuhan on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Wuhan on September 13?
15°C or below 53%
25°C or higher 50%
24°C 38%
20°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
15°C or below
53%
16°C
15%
17°C
19%
18°C
12%
19°C
27%
20°C
31%
21°C
26%
22°C
22%
23°C
21%
24°C
38%
25°C or higher
50%
15°C or below 53%
25°C or higher 50%
24°C 38%
20°C 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
53%
16°C
$0 Vol.
15%
17°C
$0 Vol.
19%
18°C
$34 Vol.
12%
19°C
$41 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
31%
21°C
$0 Vol.
26%
22°C
$0 Vol.
22%
23°C
$32 Vol.
21%
24°C
$0 Vol.
38%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models place Wuhan's overnight low on September 13 near 22–24°C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds, supporting the closely matched market-implied odds around 20–25°C. Stable high-pressure conditions favor moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 31–34°C, though urban heat retention and minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture create a several-degree uncertainty band typical of short-range temperature predictions. Traders appear to weigh the consensus central tendency against tail risks of slightly cooler or warmer outcomes driven by small changes in cloud cover or wind. Updated model runs from the China Meteorological Administration and international centers will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$107End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models place Wuhan's overnight low on September 13 near 22–24°C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds, supporting the closely matched market-implied odds around 20–25°C. Stable high-pressure conditions favor moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 31–34°C, though urban heat retention and minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture create a several-degree uncertainty band typical of short-range temperature predictions. Traders appear to weigh the consensus central tendency against tail risks of slightly cooler or warmer outcomes driven by small changes in cloud cover or wind. Updated model runs from the China Meteorological Administration and international centers will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$107End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from global and regional models place Wuhan's overnight low on September 13 near 22–24°C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds, supporting the closely matched market-implied odds around 20–25°C. Stable high-pressure conditions favor moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 31–34°C, though urban heat retention and minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture create a several-degree uncertainty band typical of short-range temperature predictions. Traders appear to weigh the consensus central tendency against tail risks of slightly cooler or warmer outcomes driven by small changes in cloud cover or wind. Updated model runs from the China Meteorological Administration and international centers will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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