Recent model consensus from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international runs (ECMWF, GFS) points to partly cloudy skies with afternoon convection as the main driver, keeping market-implied odds nearly even between a 24 °C peak and 25 °C or higher. High pressure and northerly flow favor modest warming to the mid-20s, yet scattered showers and increasing cloud cover after midday can limit insolation and cap the daily maximum. Historical September climatology shows typical highs near 24 °C, so small shifts in convective timing or dew-point recovery create the narrow spread between the leading outcomes. Updated 12–18 UTC model guidance and official SMN briefings tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 17?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 17?
25°C or higher 45%
24°C 39%
23°C 15%
22°C 2%
NEW
$10,491 Vol.
NEW
$10,491 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
15%
24°C
39%
25°C or higher
45%
25°C or higher 45%
24°C 39%
23°C 15%
22°C 2%
NEW
$10,491 Vol.
NEW
$10,491 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
15°C or below
$31 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$53 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$53 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$545 Vol.
1%
22°C
$680 Vol.
2%
23°C
$3,008 Vol.
15%
24°C
$1,378 Vol.
39%
25°C or higher
$4,649 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international runs (ECMWF, GFS) points to partly cloudy skies with afternoon convection as the main driver, keeping market-implied odds nearly even between a 24 °C peak and 25 °C or higher. High pressure and northerly flow favor modest warming to the mid-20s, yet scattered showers and increasing cloud cover after midday can limit insolation and cap the daily maximum. Historical September climatology shows typical highs near 24 °C, so small shifts in convective timing or dew-point recovery create the narrow spread between the leading outcomes. Updated 12–18 UTC model guidance and official SMN briefings tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$10,491End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international runs (ECMWF, GFS) points to partly cloudy skies with afternoon convection as the main driver, keeping market-implied odds nearly even between a 24 °C peak and 25 °C or higher. High pressure and northerly flow favor modest warming to the mid-20s, yet scattered showers and increasing cloud cover after midday can limit insolation and cap the daily maximum. Historical September climatology shows typical highs near 24 °C, so small shifts in convective timing or dew-point recovery create the narrow spread between the leading outcomes. Updated 12–18 UTC model guidance and official SMN briefings tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,491End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international runs (ECMWF, GFS) points to partly cloudy skies with afternoon convection as the main driver, keeping market-implied odds nearly even between a 24 °C peak and 25 °C or higher. High pressure and northerly flow favor modest warming to the mid-20s, yet scattered showers and increasing cloud cover after midday can limit insolation and cap the daily maximum. Historical September climatology shows typical highs near 24 °C, so small shifts in convective timing or dew-point recovery create the narrow spread between the leading outcomes. Updated 12–18 UTC model guidance and official SMN briefings tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions