Recent forecasts from regional models and China Meteorological Administration guidance point to a high near 26°C in Qingdao on September 17 under mostly cloudy skies with southeast winds of 3–4 levels, driving the tight market split between 27°C and 28°C. Coastal sea breezes and persistent cloud cover limit afternoon insolation and peak heating, while subtle differences in model runs on wind strength and timing of any breaks in overcast conditions create the narrow edge between those outcomes. Historical September maxima average 25–27°C, and traders weigh the risk of minor upward revisions if clearer intervals develop before the daily peak. Updated model guidance and official briefings expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 17?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 17?
28°C 45%
27°C 39%
29°C 10%
26°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
5%
27°C
39%
28°C
45%
29°C
10%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 45%
27°C 39%
29°C 10%
26°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
22°C or below
$243 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$263 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$248 Vol.
1%
25°C
$182 Vol.
2%
26°C
$260 Vol.
5%
27°C
$1,404 Vol.
39%
28°C
$2,438 Vol.
45%
29°C
$441 Vol.
10%
30°C
$192 Vol.
4%
31°C
$853 Vol.
2%
32°C or higher
$989 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from regional models and China Meteorological Administration guidance point to a high near 26°C in Qingdao on September 17 under mostly cloudy skies with southeast winds of 3–4 levels, driving the tight market split between 27°C and 28°C. Coastal sea breezes and persistent cloud cover limit afternoon insolation and peak heating, while subtle differences in model runs on wind strength and timing of any breaks in overcast conditions create the narrow edge between those outcomes. Historical September maxima average 25–27°C, and traders weigh the risk of minor upward revisions if clearer intervals develop before the daily peak. Updated model guidance and official briefings expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$7,513End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from regional models and China Meteorological Administration guidance point to a high near 26°C in Qingdao on September 17 under mostly cloudy skies with southeast winds of 3–4 levels, driving the tight market split between 27°C and 28°C. Coastal sea breezes and persistent cloud cover limit afternoon insolation and peak heating, while subtle differences in model runs on wind strength and timing of any breaks in overcast conditions create the narrow edge between those outcomes. Historical September maxima average 25–27°C, and traders weigh the risk of minor upward revisions if clearer intervals develop before the daily peak. Updated model guidance and official briefings expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,513End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from regional models and China Meteorological Administration guidance point to a high near 26°C in Qingdao on September 17 under mostly cloudy skies with southeast winds of 3–4 levels, driving the tight market split between 27°C and 28°C. Coastal sea breezes and persistent cloud cover limit afternoon insolation and peak heating, while subtle differences in model runs on wind strength and timing of any breaks in overcast conditions create the narrow edge between those outcomes. Historical September maxima average 25–27°C, and traders weigh the risk of minor upward revisions if clearer intervals develop before the daily peak. Updated model guidance and official briefings expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions