**Trader sentiment centers on National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts showing a high near 66–68°F under persistent marine layer influence and onshore southwest flow.** San Francisco’s coastal location typically moderates temperatures via cool Pacific air and low stratus, especially after the early-September heat wave that pushed inland and airport readings well above normal before onshore flow returned. Current NWS point forecasts and tabular data indicate a peak around 65–66°F with partly sunny skies, southwest winds 10–20 mph, and minimal warming potential, while other guidance clusters in the mid-to-upper 60s. Historical September 16 averages near 71°F provide context, but the active marine layer and lack of strong high pressure have kept conditions closer to seasonal norms or slightly below. The dominant 68–69°F bin (59.5% implied probability) captures the upper end of the most likely range, with 66–67°F (23.5%) and 70–71°F (12.5%) reflecting minor model spread and uncertainty in exact peak timing or microclimate variations across the city. No major data shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours to alter this outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 16?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 16?
68-69°F 61%
66-67°F 24%
70-71°F 13%
64-65°F 3%
$10,527 Vol.
$10,527 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
3%
66-67°F
24%
68-69°F
61%
70-71°F
13%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
68-69°F 61%
66-67°F 24%
70-71°F 13%
64-65°F 3%
$10,527 Vol.
$10,527 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
59°F or below
$521 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$414 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$137 Vol.
2%
64-65°F
$1,216 Vol.
3%
66-67°F
$2,749 Vol.
24%
68-69°F
$2,278 Vol.
61%
70-71°F
$2,391 Vol.
13%
72-73°F
$380 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$118 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$151 Vol.
<1%
78°F or higher
$171 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment centers on National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts showing a high near 66–68°F under persistent marine layer influence and onshore southwest flow.**
San Francisco’s coastal location typically moderates temperatures via cool Pacific air and low stratus, especially after the early-September heat wave that pushed inland and airport readings well above normal before onshore flow returned. Current NWS point forecasts and tabular data indicate a peak around 65–66°F with partly sunny skies, southwest winds 10–20 mph, and minimal warming potential, while other guidance clusters in the mid-to-upper 60s. Historical September 16 averages near 71°F provide context, but the active marine layer and lack of strong high pressure have kept conditions closer to seasonal norms or slightly below.
The dominant 68–69°F bin (59.5% implied probability) captures the upper end of the most likely range, with 66–67°F (23.5%) and 70–71°F (12.5%) reflecting minor model spread and uncertainty in exact peak timing or microclimate variations across the city. No major data shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours to alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$10,527End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment centers on National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts showing a high near 66–68°F under persistent marine layer influence and onshore southwest flow.**
San Francisco’s coastal location typically moderates temperatures via cool Pacific air and low stratus, especially after the early-September heat wave that pushed inland and airport readings well above normal before onshore flow returned. Current NWS point forecasts and tabular data indicate a peak around 65–66°F with partly sunny skies, southwest winds 10–20 mph, and minimal warming potential, while other guidance clusters in the mid-to-upper 60s. Historical September 16 averages near 71°F provide context, but the active marine layer and lack of strong high pressure have kept conditions closer to seasonal norms or slightly below.
The dominant 68–69°F bin (59.5% implied probability) captures the upper end of the most likely range, with 66–67°F (23.5%) and 70–71°F (12.5%) reflecting minor model spread and uncertainty in exact peak timing or microclimate variations across the city. No major data shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours to alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,527End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment centers on National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts showing a high near 66–68°F under persistent marine layer influence and onshore southwest flow.** San Francisco’s coastal location typically moderates temperatures via cool Pacific air and low stratus, especially after the early-September heat wave that pushed inland and airport readings well above normal before onshore flow returned. Current NWS point forecasts and tabular data indicate a peak around 65–66°F with partly sunny skies, southwest winds 10–20 mph, and minimal warming potential, while other guidance clusters in the mid-to-upper 60s. Historical September 16 averages near 71°F provide context, but the active marine layer and lack of strong high pressure have kept conditions closer to seasonal norms or slightly below. The dominant 68–69°F bin (59.5% implied probability) captures the upper end of the most likely range, with 66–67°F (23.5%) and 70–71°F (12.5%) reflecting minor model spread and uncertainty in exact peak timing or microclimate variations across the city. No major data shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours to alter this outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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