Current National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts a low of 58–59°F for San Francisco on September 16, driven by persistent onshore flow and a moderating marine layer that limits overnight radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies. This aligns with the month’s climatological average low near 56°F and recent observations showing similar upper-50s readings amid mild September conditions. Traders have heavily favored the 58–59°F bin at 82.5% implied probability, with lower bins like 54–55°F receiving secondary support only if a stronger marine push develops. Official resolution will rely on National Weather Service station data, with minimal expected deviation given stable atmospheric patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 16?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 16?
49°F or below 98%
58-59°F 96%
52-53°F 13%
56-57°F 11%
$3,127 Vol.
$3,127 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
49°F or below
98%
50-51°F
3%
52-53°F
13%
54-55°F
11%
56-57°F
14%
58-59°F
87%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68°F or higher
<1%
49°F or below 98%
58-59°F 96%
52-53°F 13%
56-57°F 11%
$3,127 Vol.
$3,127 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
49°F or below
$0 Vol.
98%
50-51°F
$10 Vol.
3%
52-53°F
$10 Vol.
13%
54-55°F
$1 Vol.
11%
56-57°F
$88 Vol.
14%
58-59°F
$149 Vol.
87%
60-61°F
$2,811 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$57 Vol.
<1%
68°F or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts a low of 58–59°F for San Francisco on September 16, driven by persistent onshore flow and a moderating marine layer that limits overnight radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies. This aligns with the month’s climatological average low near 56°F and recent observations showing similar upper-50s readings amid mild September conditions. Traders have heavily favored the 58–59°F bin at 82.5% implied probability, with lower bins like 54–55°F receiving secondary support only if a stronger marine push develops. Official resolution will rely on National Weather Service station data, with minimal expected deviation given stable atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,127End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts a low of 58–59°F for San Francisco on September 16, driven by persistent onshore flow and a moderating marine layer that limits overnight radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies. This aligns with the month’s climatological average low near 56°F and recent observations showing similar upper-50s readings amid mild September conditions. Traders have heavily favored the 58–59°F bin at 82.5% implied probability, with lower bins like 54–55°F receiving secondary support only if a stronger marine push develops. Official resolution will rely on National Weather Service station data, with minimal expected deviation given stable atmospheric patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,127End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and model consensus forecasts a low of 58–59°F for San Francisco on September 16, driven by persistent onshore flow and a moderating marine layer that limits overnight radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies. This aligns with the month’s climatological average low near 56°F and recent observations showing similar upper-50s readings amid mild September conditions. Traders have heavily favored the 58–59°F bin at 82.5% implied probability, with lower bins like 54–55°F receiving secondary support only if a stronger marine push develops. Official resolution will rely on National Weather Service station data, with minimal expected deviation given stable atmospheric patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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