Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and JMA guidance, indicate a high of 23–25°C in Tokyo on September 17 under northerly flow and lingering moisture from recent heavy rain. This pattern favors 24°C as the most probable outcome, aligning with market-implied odds of 38.5% for that exact figure. Afternoon clearing may allow brief warming toward 25°C, but sustained cloud cover and winds of 10–15 km/h limit further rise. These values sit below mid-September climatological averages near 27°C, reflecting the cool air advection now in place. Final hourly observations from the Tokyo station will determine exact resolution, with little time remaining for significant model shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 17?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 17?
24°C 39%
23°C 28%
25°C 22%
22°C 7%
NEW
$11,634 Vol.
NEW
$11,634 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
4%
22°C
7%
23°C
28%
24°C
39%
25°C
22%
26°C
5%
27°C
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 39%
23°C 28%
25°C 22%
22°C 7%
NEW
$11,634 Vol.
NEW
$11,634 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
19°C or below
$191 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$329 Vol.
1%
21°C
$568 Vol.
4%
22°C
$791 Vol.
7%
23°C
$2,863 Vol.
28%
24°C
$1,549 Vol.
39%
25°C
$2,546 Vol.
22%
26°C
$697 Vol.
5%
27°C
$544 Vol.
2%
28°C
$350 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$1,207 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and JMA guidance, indicate a high of 23–25°C in Tokyo on September 17 under northerly flow and lingering moisture from recent heavy rain. This pattern favors 24°C as the most probable outcome, aligning with market-implied odds of 38.5% for that exact figure. Afternoon clearing may allow brief warming toward 25°C, but sustained cloud cover and winds of 10–15 km/h limit further rise. These values sit below mid-September climatological averages near 27°C, reflecting the cool air advection now in place. Final hourly observations from the Tokyo station will determine exact resolution, with little time remaining for significant model shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$11,634End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and JMA guidance, indicate a high of 23–25°C in Tokyo on September 17 under northerly flow and lingering moisture from recent heavy rain. This pattern favors 24°C as the most probable outcome, aligning with market-implied odds of 38.5% for that exact figure. Afternoon clearing may allow brief warming toward 25°C, but sustained cloud cover and winds of 10–15 km/h limit further rise. These values sit below mid-September climatological averages near 27°C, reflecting the cool air advection now in place. Final hourly observations from the Tokyo station will determine exact resolution, with little time remaining for significant model shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,634End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and JMA guidance, indicate a high of 23–25°C in Tokyo on September 17 under northerly flow and lingering moisture from recent heavy rain. This pattern favors 24°C as the most probable outcome, aligning with market-implied odds of 38.5% for that exact figure. Afternoon clearing may allow brief warming toward 25°C, but sustained cloud cover and winds of 10–15 km/h limit further rise. These values sit below mid-September climatological averages near 27°C, reflecting the cool air advection now in place. Final hourly observations from the Tokyo station will determine exact resolution, with little time remaining for significant model shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions