Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's minimum temperature on August 30 will likely fall near 18°C under clear to mostly clear skies and light northwest winds, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–18°C. Radiative cooling overnight following daytime highs near 32°C, combined with low humidity and minimal cloud cover, supports these levels, while recent shifts from humid, rainy conditions on August 28 have reduced moisture that typically moderates nighttime lows. Historical late-August baselines average 19–21°C minima, but the current setup favors slightly cooler readings absent stronger southerly flow or increased cloudiness. Model consensus remains high, though small revisions in wind timing or residual moisture could nudge the exact low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 30?
13°C or below 66%
23°C or higher 56%
15°C 48%
19°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
66%
14°C
45%
15°C
48%
16°C
26%
17°C
31%
18°C
31%
19°C
48%
20°C
25%
21°C
12%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
56%
13°C or below 66%
23°C or higher 56%
15°C 48%
19°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
$5 Vol.
66%
14°C
$0 Vol.
45%
15°C
$0 Vol.
48%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$0 Vol.
31%
18°C
$0 Vol.
31%
19°C
$0 Vol.
48%
20°C
$0 Vol.
25%
21°C
$30 Vol.
12%
22°C
$5 Vol.
2%
23°C or higher
$5 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's minimum temperature on August 30 will likely fall near 18°C under clear to mostly clear skies and light northwest winds, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–18°C. Radiative cooling overnight following daytime highs near 32°C, combined with low humidity and minimal cloud cover, supports these levels, while recent shifts from humid, rainy conditions on August 28 have reduced moisture that typically moderates nighttime lows. Historical late-August baselines average 19–21°C minima, but the current setup favors slightly cooler readings absent stronger southerly flow or increased cloudiness. Model consensus remains high, though small revisions in wind timing or residual moisture could nudge the exact low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$45End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's minimum temperature on August 30 will likely fall near 18°C under clear to mostly clear skies and light northwest winds, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–18°C. Radiative cooling overnight following daytime highs near 32°C, combined with low humidity and minimal cloud cover, supports these levels, while recent shifts from humid, rainy conditions on August 28 have reduced moisture that typically moderates nighttime lows. Historical late-August baselines average 19–21°C minima, but the current setup favors slightly cooler readings absent stronger southerly flow or increased cloudiness. Model consensus remains high, though small revisions in wind timing or residual moisture could nudge the exact low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$45End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Beijing's minimum temperature on August 30 will likely fall near 18°C under clear to mostly clear skies and light northwest winds, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–18°C. Radiative cooling overnight following daytime highs near 32°C, combined with low humidity and minimal cloud cover, supports these levels, while recent shifts from humid, rainy conditions on August 28 have reduced moisture that typically moderates nighttime lows. Historical late-August baselines average 19–21°C minima, but the current setup favors slightly cooler readings absent stronger southerly flow or increased cloudiness. Model consensus remains high, though small revisions in wind timing or residual moisture could nudge the exact low.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions