**Forecast models for Chengdu on September 18 indicate a low near 19–21°C under mostly cloudy skies with light rain or drizzle possible, limiting overnight radiative cooling in the humid Sichuan Basin.** Recent days of scattered showers have increased soil moisture, which can moderate temperature drops by enhancing latent heat release, while light winds (generally under 10 km/h) reduce mixing. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows around 18–20°C, but ensemble spreads in global models like ECMWF and GFS highlight sensitivity to cloud thickness and timing of any clearing. With leading market-implied odds nearly even between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes, traders appear to be weighting tail risks from potential forecast revisions or localized microclimate effects over the current consensus near 20°C. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 18?
25°C or higher 98%
15°C or below 97%
21°C 49%
20°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
97%
16°C
39%
17°C
19%
18°C
21%
19°C
39%
20°C
40%
21°C
27%
22°C
40%
23°C
20%
24°C
20%
25°C or higher
98%
25°C or higher 98%
15°C or below 97%
21°C 49%
20°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
97%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
19%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
39%
20°C
$0 Vol.
40%
21°C
$18 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C
$0 Vol.
20%
24°C
$0 Vol.
20%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Chengdu on September 18 indicate a low near 19–21°C under mostly cloudy skies with light rain or drizzle possible, limiting overnight radiative cooling in the humid Sichuan Basin.** Recent days of scattered showers have increased soil moisture, which can moderate temperature drops by enhancing latent heat release, while light winds (generally under 10 km/h) reduce mixing. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows around 18–20°C, but ensemble spreads in global models like ECMWF and GFS highlight sensitivity to cloud thickness and timing of any clearing. With leading market-implied odds nearly even between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes, traders appear to be weighting tail risks from potential forecast revisions or localized microclimate effects over the current consensus near 20°C. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$18End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Chengdu on September 18 indicate a low near 19–21°C under mostly cloudy skies with light rain or drizzle possible, limiting overnight radiative cooling in the humid Sichuan Basin.** Recent days of scattered showers have increased soil moisture, which can moderate temperature drops by enhancing latent heat release, while light winds (generally under 10 km/h) reduce mixing. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows around 18–20°C, but ensemble spreads in global models like ECMWF and GFS highlight sensitivity to cloud thickness and timing of any clearing. With leading market-implied odds nearly even between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes, traders appear to be weighting tail risks from potential forecast revisions or localized microclimate effects over the current consensus near 20°C. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models for Chengdu on September 18 indicate a low near 19–21°C under mostly cloudy skies with light rain or drizzle possible, limiting overnight radiative cooling in the humid Sichuan Basin.** Recent days of scattered showers have increased soil moisture, which can moderate temperature drops by enhancing latent heat release, while light winds (generally under 10 km/h) reduce mixing. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows around 18–20°C, but ensemble spreads in global models like ECMWF and GFS highlight sensitivity to cloud thickness and timing of any clearing. With leading market-implied odds nearly even between sub-15°C and 25°C+ outcomes, traders appear to be weighting tail risks from potential forecast revisions or localized microclimate effects over the current consensus near 20°C. Updated short-range guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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