**Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) indicate a minimum temperature near 21–23°C for Chongqing on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread light-to-moderate rain, and light northeasterly winds that limit both daytime heating and nocturnal radiative cooling.** This places the outcome between the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 15°C or below (49.5%) and 25°C or higher (49.0%), reflecting trader assessment of forecast uncertainty from model spread and the timing of precipitation bands. September climatology for the region shows typical daily lows near 22°C under similar monsoon-transition conditions, with urban heat-island effects in Chongqing potentially elevating observed minima. New model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chongqing on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Chongqing on September 18?
25°C or higher 89%
15°C or below 81%
20°C 51%
21°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
81%
16°C
39%
17°C
39%
18°C
39%
19°C
22%
20°C
51%
21°C
40%
22°C
40%
23°C
39%
24°C
21%
25°C or higher
89%
25°C or higher 89%
15°C or below 81%
20°C 51%
21°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
81%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$10 Vol.
22%
20°C
$47 Vol.
51%
21°C
$0 Vol.
40%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
21%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) indicate a minimum temperature near 21–23°C for Chongqing on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread light-to-moderate rain, and light northeasterly winds that limit both daytime heating and nocturnal radiative cooling.**
This places the outcome between the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 15°C or below (49.5%) and 25°C or higher (49.0%), reflecting trader assessment of forecast uncertainty from model spread and the timing of precipitation bands. September climatology for the region shows typical daily lows near 22°C under similar monsoon-transition conditions, with urban heat-island effects in Chongqing potentially elevating observed minima. New model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$58End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) indicate a minimum temperature near 21–23°C for Chongqing on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread light-to-moderate rain, and light northeasterly winds that limit both daytime heating and nocturnal radiative cooling.**
This places the outcome between the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 15°C or below (49.5%) and 25°C or higher (49.0%), reflecting trader assessment of forecast uncertainty from model spread and the timing of precipitation bands. September climatology for the region shows typical daily lows near 22°C under similar monsoon-transition conditions, with urban heat-island effects in Chongqing potentially elevating observed minima. New model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$58End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuckResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest numerical weather prediction models from sources like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) indicate a minimum temperature near 21–23°C for Chongqing on September 18, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread light-to-moderate rain, and light northeasterly winds that limit both daytime heating and nocturnal radiative cooling.** This places the outcome between the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 15°C or below (49.5%) and 25°C or higher (49.0%), reflecting trader assessment of forecast uncertainty from model spread and the timing of precipitation bands. September climatology for the region shows typical daily lows near 22°C under similar monsoon-transition conditions, with urban heat-island effects in Chongqing potentially elevating observed minima. New model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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