**Trader consensus centers on a 13–14°C minimum for São Paulo on September 17, with 14°C leading at 43% and 13°C at 31%.** This reflects model consensus from sources such as INMET-aligned forecasts, GFS/ECMWF runs, and local outputs showing overnight lows near 13–14°C under persistent southeasterly flow, high pressure near 1025–1027 hPa, and extensive low-level cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. A recent cool air mass, linked to earlier frontal passages, has kept daytime maxima suppressed around 18–20°C on the 16th, with dew points near 11–12°C supporting the modest overnight drop. Warmer outcomes (18°C+) hold lower implied odds due to limited mixing or clearing, while sub-12°C scenarios remain improbable absent stronger polar advection. Fresh model guidance and early-morning observations on the 17th will likely anchor final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 17?
18°C or higher 45%
14°C 43%
13°C 39%
16°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
8°C or below
2%
9°C
5%
10°C
5%
11°C
7%
12°C
13%
13°C
24%
14°C
43%
15°C
21%
16°C
38%
17°C
20%
18°C or higher
45%
18°C or higher 45%
14°C 43%
13°C 39%
16°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
9°C
$0 Vol.
5%
10°C
$0 Vol.
5%
11°C
$5 Vol.
7%
12°C
$1 Vol.
13%
13°C
$3 Vol.
24%
14°C
$107 Vol.
43%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$0 Vol.
38%
17°C
$0 Vol.
20%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 13–14°C minimum for São Paulo on September 17, with 14°C leading at 43% and 13°C at 31%.** This reflects model consensus from sources such as INMET-aligned forecasts, GFS/ECMWF runs, and local outputs showing overnight lows near 13–14°C under persistent southeasterly flow, high pressure near 1025–1027 hPa, and extensive low-level cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. A recent cool air mass, linked to earlier frontal passages, has kept daytime maxima suppressed around 18–20°C on the 16th, with dew points near 11–12°C supporting the modest overnight drop. Warmer outcomes (18°C+) hold lower implied odds due to limited mixing or clearing, while sub-12°C scenarios remain improbable absent stronger polar advection. Fresh model guidance and early-morning observations on the 17th will likely anchor final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$116End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on a 13–14°C minimum for São Paulo on September 17, with 14°C leading at 43% and 13°C at 31%.** This reflects model consensus from sources such as INMET-aligned forecasts, GFS/ECMWF runs, and local outputs showing overnight lows near 13–14°C under persistent southeasterly flow, high pressure near 1025–1027 hPa, and extensive low-level cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. A recent cool air mass, linked to earlier frontal passages, has kept daytime maxima suppressed around 18–20°C on the 16th, with dew points near 11–12°C supporting the modest overnight drop. Warmer outcomes (18°C+) hold lower implied odds due to limited mixing or clearing, while sub-12°C scenarios remain improbable absent stronger polar advection. Fresh model guidance and early-morning observations on the 17th will likely anchor final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$116End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus centers on a 13–14°C minimum for São Paulo on September 17, with 14°C leading at 43% and 13°C at 31%.** This reflects model consensus from sources such as INMET-aligned forecasts, GFS/ECMWF runs, and local outputs showing overnight lows near 13–14°C under persistent southeasterly flow, high pressure near 1025–1027 hPa, and extensive low-level cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. A recent cool air mass, linked to earlier frontal passages, has kept daytime maxima suppressed around 18–20°C on the 16th, with dew points near 11–12°C supporting the modest overnight drop. Warmer outcomes (18°C+) hold lower implied odds due to limited mixing or clearing, while sub-12°C scenarios remain improbable absent stronger polar advection. Fresh model guidance and early-morning observations on the 17th will likely anchor final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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