Recent weather model consensus from global ensembles highlights a likely overnight minimum of 12–13°C in São Paulo on September 16, driven by moderate cold-air advection from the south and clear skies promoting radiative cooling under stable high pressure. These conditions align with mid-September climatology, where typical lows range 12–15°C amid the transition from dry winter to spring. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these thresholds because official INMET observations and late-model runs show limited scope for further cooling without an unexpected frontal passage or stronger winds. Updated forecasts and the final 24-hour minimum reading from the city’s primary station will determine resolution, with any deviation in cloud cover or wind speed the key variable that could shift outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 16?
13°C 70%
12°C 51%
9°C or below 4%
10°C 3%
$4,068 Vol.
$4,068 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
9°C or below
4%
10°C
3%
11°C
3%
12°C
51%
13°C
70%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
13°C 70%
12°C 51%
9°C or below 4%
10°C 3%
$4,068 Vol.
$4,068 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
10°C
$107 Vol.
3%
11°C
$15 Vol.
3%
12°C
$12 Vol.
51%
13°C
$6 Vol.
70%
14°C
$1,888 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,939 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$25 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from global ensembles highlights a likely overnight minimum of 12–13°C in São Paulo on September 16, driven by moderate cold-air advection from the south and clear skies promoting radiative cooling under stable high pressure. These conditions align with mid-September climatology, where typical lows range 12–15°C amid the transition from dry winter to spring. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these thresholds because official INMET observations and late-model runs show limited scope for further cooling without an unexpected frontal passage or stronger winds. Updated forecasts and the final 24-hour minimum reading from the city’s primary station will determine resolution, with any deviation in cloud cover or wind speed the key variable that could shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$4,068End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from global ensembles highlights a likely overnight minimum of 12–13°C in São Paulo on September 16, driven by moderate cold-air advection from the south and clear skies promoting radiative cooling under stable high pressure. These conditions align with mid-September climatology, where typical lows range 12–15°C amid the transition from dry winter to spring. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these thresholds because official INMET observations and late-model runs show limited scope for further cooling without an unexpected frontal passage or stronger winds. Updated forecasts and the final 24-hour minimum reading from the city’s primary station will determine resolution, with any deviation in cloud cover or wind speed the key variable that could shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,068End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from global ensembles highlights a likely overnight minimum of 12–13°C in São Paulo on September 16, driven by moderate cold-air advection from the south and clear skies promoting radiative cooling under stable high pressure. These conditions align with mid-September climatology, where typical lows range 12–15°C amid the transition from dry winter to spring. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these thresholds because official INMET observations and late-model runs show limited scope for further cooling without an unexpected frontal passage or stronger winds. Updated forecasts and the final 24-hour minimum reading from the city’s primary station will determine resolution, with any deviation in cloud cover or wind speed the key variable that could shift outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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