Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and multiple models points to a daily minimum near 52–55°F in Seattle on September 16, 2026, under clear skies and light northerly flow that favors radiational cooling without significant cloud cover or moisture. This setup, typical for mid-September high-pressure regimes, aligns closely with the 54–55°F bin holding the highest market-implied probability. Recent observations show overnight temperatures already in the low-to-mid 50s, with no incoming frontal systems or marine layer intrusions expected to alter the trajectory before resolution. Historical September lows average around 53°F, providing additional context for the tight clustering of probabilities in the 52–55°F range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seattle on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Seattle on September 16?
45°F or below 98%
54-55°F 85%
48-49°F 47%
50-51°F 25%
$927 Vol.
$927 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
45°F or below
98%
46-47°F
6%
48-49°F
47%
50-51°F
25%
52-53°F
36%
54-55°F
85%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64°F or higher
<1%
45°F or below 98%
54-55°F 85%
48-49°F 47%
50-51°F 25%
$927 Vol.
$927 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
45°F or below
$100 Vol.
98%
46-47°F
$225 Vol.
6%
48-49°F
$247 Vol.
47%
50-51°F
$10 Vol.
25%
52-53°F
$19 Vol.
36%
54-55°F
$40 Vol.
85%
56-57°F
$181 Vol.
<1%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$37 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$31 Vol.
<1%
64°F or higher
$37 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and multiple models points to a daily minimum near 52–55°F in Seattle on September 16, 2026, under clear skies and light northerly flow that favors radiational cooling without significant cloud cover or moisture. This setup, typical for mid-September high-pressure regimes, aligns closely with the 54–55°F bin holding the highest market-implied probability. Recent observations show overnight temperatures already in the low-to-mid 50s, with no incoming frontal systems or marine layer intrusions expected to alter the trajectory before resolution. Historical September lows average around 53°F, providing additional context for the tight clustering of probabilities in the 52–55°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$927End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and multiple models points to a daily minimum near 52–55°F in Seattle on September 16, 2026, under clear skies and light northerly flow that favors radiational cooling without significant cloud cover or moisture. This setup, typical for mid-September high-pressure regimes, aligns closely with the 54–55°F bin holding the highest market-implied probability. Recent observations show overnight temperatures already in the low-to-mid 50s, with no incoming frontal systems or marine layer intrusions expected to alter the trajectory before resolution. Historical September lows average around 53°F, providing additional context for the tight clustering of probabilities in the 52–55°F range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$927End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from National Weather Service and multiple models points to a daily minimum near 52–55°F in Seattle on September 16, 2026, under clear skies and light northerly flow that favors radiational cooling without significant cloud cover or moisture. This setup, typical for mid-September high-pressure regimes, aligns closely with the 54–55°F bin holding the highest market-implied probability. Recent observations show overnight temperatures already in the low-to-mid 50s, with no incoming frontal systems or marine layer intrusions expected to alter the trajectory before resolution. Historical September lows average around 53°F, providing additional context for the tight clustering of probabilities in the 52–55°F range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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