Forecast uncertainty between a potential cool air intrusion and persistent subtropical warmth drives the closely matched probabilities for Shenzhen's lowest temperature on September 18, with 21°C or below at 50% and 31°C or higher at 42%. September climatology favors daytime highs near 30°C, yet early-autumn cold fronts or enhanced monsoon flow can drop nighttime lows into the low-20s. Current model runs show divergence in steering patterns and moisture transport, with some ensembles indicating a frontal passage that would suppress temperatures while others maintain warm, humid conditions typical of the region. Official guidance from meteorological agencies will clarify the outcome as the date approaches, highlighting how small shifts in synoptic setup can swing the daily minimum across these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 18?
21°C or below 100%
31°C or higher 75%
25°C 47%
24°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
21°C or below
100%
22°C
19%
23°C
22%
24°C
39%
25°C
32%
26°C
27%
27°C
22%
28°C
8%
29°C
39%
30°C
39%
31°C or higher
75%
21°C or below 100%
31°C or higher 75%
25°C 47%
24°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
22°C
$0 Vol.
19%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C
$16 Vol.
32%
26°C
$0 Vol.
27%
27°C
$0 Vol.
22%
28°C
$0 Vol.
8%
29°C
$0 Vol.
39%
30°C
$0 Vol.
39%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty between a potential cool air intrusion and persistent subtropical warmth drives the closely matched probabilities for Shenzhen's lowest temperature on September 18, with 21°C or below at 50% and 31°C or higher at 42%. September climatology favors daytime highs near 30°C, yet early-autumn cold fronts or enhanced monsoon flow can drop nighttime lows into the low-20s. Current model runs show divergence in steering patterns and moisture transport, with some ensembles indicating a frontal passage that would suppress temperatures while others maintain warm, humid conditions typical of the region. Official guidance from meteorological agencies will clarify the outcome as the date approaches, highlighting how small shifts in synoptic setup can swing the daily minimum across these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$16End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty between a potential cool air intrusion and persistent subtropical warmth drives the closely matched probabilities for Shenzhen's lowest temperature on September 18, with 21°C or below at 50% and 31°C or higher at 42%. September climatology favors daytime highs near 30°C, yet early-autumn cold fronts or enhanced monsoon flow can drop nighttime lows into the low-20s. Current model runs show divergence in steering patterns and moisture transport, with some ensembles indicating a frontal passage that would suppress temperatures while others maintain warm, humid conditions typical of the region. Official guidance from meteorological agencies will clarify the outcome as the date approaches, highlighting how small shifts in synoptic setup can swing the daily minimum across these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty between a potential cool air intrusion and persistent subtropical warmth drives the closely matched probabilities for Shenzhen's lowest temperature on September 18, with 21°C or below at 50% and 31°C or higher at 42%. September climatology favors daytime highs near 30°C, yet early-autumn cold fronts or enhanced monsoon flow can drop nighttime lows into the low-20s. Current model runs show divergence in steering patterns and moisture transport, with some ensembles indicating a frontal passage that would suppress temperatures while others maintain warm, humid conditions typical of the region. Official guidance from meteorological agencies will clarify the outcome as the date approaches, highlighting how small shifts in synoptic setup can swing the daily minimum across these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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