Recent forecast model consensus for Shenzhen points to overnight lows near 25–26°C on September 17 under the influence of the northeast monsoon, with light easterly winds and limited cloud cover that should permit moderate radiative cooling. The near-even market odds between sub-22°C and above-31°C outcomes reflect genuine uncertainty in how quickly the monsoon strengthens or whether localized showers develop, both of which can alter minimum temperatures by several degrees through changes in humidity, wind mixing, and cloud radiative effects. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows of 24–26°C, providing context for the current positioning. Updated runs from regional and global models expected overnight will likely clarify steering patterns and moisture transport ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 17?
21°C or below 97%
31°C or higher 94%
26°C 50%
22°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
21°C or below
97%
22°C
40%
23°C
40%
24°C
22%
25°C
12%
26°C
34%
27°C
28%
28°C
3%
29°C
17%
30°C
17%
31°C or higher
94%
21°C or below 97%
31°C or higher 94%
26°C 50%
22°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
97%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C
$0 Vol.
40%
24°C
$0 Vol.
22%
25°C
$5 Vol.
12%
26°C
$22 Vol.
34%
27°C
$70 Vol.
28%
28°C
$0 Vol.
3%
29°C
$0 Vol.
17%
30°C
$0 Vol.
17%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus for Shenzhen points to overnight lows near 25–26°C on September 17 under the influence of the northeast monsoon, with light easterly winds and limited cloud cover that should permit moderate radiative cooling. The near-even market odds between sub-22°C and above-31°C outcomes reflect genuine uncertainty in how quickly the monsoon strengthens or whether localized showers develop, both of which can alter minimum temperatures by several degrees through changes in humidity, wind mixing, and cloud radiative effects. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows of 24–26°C, providing context for the current positioning. Updated runs from regional and global models expected overnight will likely clarify steering patterns and moisture transport ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$98End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus for Shenzhen points to overnight lows near 25–26°C on September 17 under the influence of the northeast monsoon, with light easterly winds and limited cloud cover that should permit moderate radiative cooling. The near-even market odds between sub-22°C and above-31°C outcomes reflect genuine uncertainty in how quickly the monsoon strengthens or whether localized showers develop, both of which can alter minimum temperatures by several degrees through changes in humidity, wind mixing, and cloud radiative effects. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows of 24–26°C, providing context for the current positioning. Updated runs from regional and global models expected overnight will likely clarify steering patterns and moisture transport ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$98End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus for Shenzhen points to overnight lows near 25–26°C on September 17 under the influence of the northeast monsoon, with light easterly winds and limited cloud cover that should permit moderate radiative cooling. The near-even market odds between sub-22°C and above-31°C outcomes reflect genuine uncertainty in how quickly the monsoon strengthens or whether localized showers develop, both of which can alter minimum temperatures by several degrees through changes in humidity, wind mixing, and cloud radiative effects. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows of 24–26°C, providing context for the current positioning. Updated runs from regional and global models expected overnight will likely clarify steering patterns and moisture transport ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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