Forecast models from sources including the Global Forecast System indicate Tokyo's September 18 minimum will likely fall between 19–20°C, driven by northerly winds of 10–16 mph, persistent cloud cover, and light rain chances that limit overnight radiative cooling. These conditions follow a period of unsettled weather with higher humidity and moderate pressure around 1015–1022 hPa, preventing sharper drops while also curbing daytime highs near 24–25°C. Ensemble spreads create the near-even split between 19°C and 20°C outcomes, as small variations in wind speed or cloud thickness could shift the exact low by 1°C. Updated model runs and Japan Meteorological Agency observations over the next 48 hours will refine this range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 18?
20°C 42%
19°C 34%
18°C 27%
17°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
14°C or below
2%
15°C
11%
16°C
18%
17°C
22%
18°C
27%
19°C
34%
20°C
32%
21°C
11%
22°C
7%
23°C
5%
24°C or higher
5%
20°C 42%
19°C 34%
18°C 27%
17°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
15°C
$0 Vol.
11%
16°C
$0 Vol.
18%
17°C
$0 Vol.
22%
18°C
$99 Vol.
27%
19°C
$710 Vol.
34%
20°C
$808 Vol.
32%
21°C
$0 Vol.
11%
22°C
$0 Vol.
7%
23°C
$0 Vol.
5%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Global Forecast System indicate Tokyo's September 18 minimum will likely fall between 19–20°C, driven by northerly winds of 10–16 mph, persistent cloud cover, and light rain chances that limit overnight radiative cooling. These conditions follow a period of unsettled weather with higher humidity and moderate pressure around 1015–1022 hPa, preventing sharper drops while also curbing daytime highs near 24–25°C. Ensemble spreads create the near-even split between 19°C and 20°C outcomes, as small variations in wind speed or cloud thickness could shift the exact low by 1°C. Updated model runs and Japan Meteorological Agency observations over the next 48 hours will refine this range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,617End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Global Forecast System indicate Tokyo's September 18 minimum will likely fall between 19–20°C, driven by northerly winds of 10–16 mph, persistent cloud cover, and light rain chances that limit overnight radiative cooling. These conditions follow a period of unsettled weather with higher humidity and moderate pressure around 1015–1022 hPa, preventing sharper drops while also curbing daytime highs near 24–25°C. Ensemble spreads create the near-even split between 19°C and 20°C outcomes, as small variations in wind speed or cloud thickness could shift the exact low by 1°C. Updated model runs and Japan Meteorological Agency observations over the next 48 hours will refine this range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,617End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the Global Forecast System indicate Tokyo's September 18 minimum will likely fall between 19–20°C, driven by northerly winds of 10–16 mph, persistent cloud cover, and light rain chances that limit overnight radiative cooling. These conditions follow a period of unsettled weather with higher humidity and moderate pressure around 1015–1022 hPa, preventing sharper drops while also curbing daytime highs near 24–25°C. Ensemble spreads create the near-even split between 19°C and 20°C outcomes, as small variations in wind speed or cloud thickness could shift the exact low by 1°C. Updated model runs and Japan Meteorological Agency observations over the next 48 hours will refine this range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions