Persistent rain and northeasterly winds from a frontal system have kept Tokyo under thick cloud cover on September 16, limiting daytime heating and supporting overnight radiative cooling toward the low 20s°C range. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate a minimum near 19–20°C, with surface observations showing temperatures holding around 20°C into the evening amid high humidity above 90% and light precipitation. These conditions favor the closely matched 20°C and 21°C market outcomes, as model consensus on boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds creates modest uncertainty between a 19°C floor and slightly warmer readings. Updated short-range guidance from JMA and global models will refine the exact minimum before midnight resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
20°C 56%
18°C 47%
17°C 11%
19°C 8%
$4,969 Vol.
$4,969 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
11%
18°C
47%
19°C
8%
20°C
56%
21°C
50%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
20°C 56%
18°C 47%
17°C 11%
19°C 8%
$4,969 Vol.
$4,969 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
16°C or below
$68 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$162 Vol.
11%
18°C
$125 Vol.
47%
19°C
$1,048 Vol.
8%
20°C
$962 Vol.
56%
21°C
$1,408 Vol.
50%
22°C
$314 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$188 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$489 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$188 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northeasterly winds from a frontal system have kept Tokyo under thick cloud cover on September 16, limiting daytime heating and supporting overnight radiative cooling toward the low 20s°C range. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate a minimum near 19–20°C, with surface observations showing temperatures holding around 20°C into the evening amid high humidity above 90% and light precipitation. These conditions favor the closely matched 20°C and 21°C market outcomes, as model consensus on boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds creates modest uncertainty between a 19°C floor and slightly warmer readings. Updated short-range guidance from JMA and global models will refine the exact minimum before midnight resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$4,969End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northeasterly winds from a frontal system have kept Tokyo under thick cloud cover on September 16, limiting daytime heating and supporting overnight radiative cooling toward the low 20s°C range. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate a minimum near 19–20°C, with surface observations showing temperatures holding around 20°C into the evening amid high humidity above 90% and light precipitation. These conditions favor the closely matched 20°C and 21°C market outcomes, as model consensus on boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds creates modest uncertainty between a 19°C floor and slightly warmer readings. Updated short-range guidance from JMA and global models will refine the exact minimum before midnight resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,969End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rain and northeasterly winds from a frontal system have kept Tokyo under thick cloud cover on September 16, limiting daytime heating and supporting overnight radiative cooling toward the low 20s°C range. Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts indicate a minimum near 19–20°C, with surface observations showing temperatures holding around 20°C into the evening amid high humidity above 90% and light precipitation. These conditions favor the closely matched 20°C and 21°C market outcomes, as model consensus on boundary-layer moisture and wind speeds creates modest uncertainty between a 19°C floor and slightly warmer readings. Updated short-range guidance from JMA and global models will refine the exact minimum before midnight resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions