Recent polling from July 2026 shows Renato Casagrande (PSB) dominating first place with 24–32% support across scenarios, leaving a fragmented contest for second among Paulo Hartung (PSD), Sérgio Meneguelli (PSD), Rose de Freitas (MDB), Maguinha Malta (PL), and Fabiano Contarato (PT). July surveys placed Hartung near 23% or Meneguelli at 17% in alternate fields, with the rest clustered at 6–12%, reflecting divided center-right and left-leaning support plus high undecided shares. Candidate registrations closed in mid-August without major new alliances or withdrawals that have shifted the field, while the two-seat structure and October 4 first-round timeline keep second-place positioning fluid ahead of final campaign pushes. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with no single contender pulling clear.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSergio Meneguelli 50%
Fabiano Contarato 28.9%
Rose de Freitas 13.0%
Maguinha Malta 5.1%
$15,104 Vol.
$15,104 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
50%
Fabiano Contarato
29%
Rose de Freitas
13%
Maguinha Malta
9%
Evair de Melo
3%
Leonardo Monjardim
3%
Callegari
2%
Marcos do Val
1%
Rodney Miranda
1%
Renato Casagrande
1%
Professor Fabian
<1%
Sergio Meneguelli 50%
Fabiano Contarato 28.9%
Rose de Freitas 13.0%
Maguinha Malta 5.1%
$15,104 Vol.
$15,104 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
$11,465 Vol.
50%
Fabiano Contarato
$784 Vol.
29%
Rose de Freitas
$736 Vol.
13%
Maguinha Malta
$319 Vol.
9%
Evair de Melo
$371 Vol.
3%
Leonardo Monjardim
$258 Vol.
3%
Callegari
$398 Vol.
2%
Marcos do Val
$205 Vol.
1%
Rodney Miranda
$139 Vol.
1%
Renato Casagrande
$229 Vol.
1%
Professor Fabian
$201 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July 2026 shows Renato Casagrande (PSB) dominating first place with 24–32% support across scenarios, leaving a fragmented contest for second among Paulo Hartung (PSD), Sérgio Meneguelli (PSD), Rose de Freitas (MDB), Maguinha Malta (PL), and Fabiano Contarato (PT). July surveys placed Hartung near 23% or Meneguelli at 17% in alternate fields, with the rest clustered at 6–12%, reflecting divided center-right and left-leaning support plus high undecided shares. Candidate registrations closed in mid-August without major new alliances or withdrawals that have shifted the field, while the two-seat structure and October 4 first-round timeline keep second-place positioning fluid ahead of final campaign pushes. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with no single contender pulling clear.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$15,104End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July 2026 shows Renato Casagrande (PSB) dominating first place with 24–32% support across scenarios, leaving a fragmented contest for second among Paulo Hartung (PSD), Sérgio Meneguelli (PSD), Rose de Freitas (MDB), Maguinha Malta (PL), and Fabiano Contarato (PT). July surveys placed Hartung near 23% or Meneguelli at 17% in alternate fields, with the rest clustered at 6–12%, reflecting divided center-right and left-leaning support plus high undecided shares. Candidate registrations closed in mid-August without major new alliances or withdrawals that have shifted the field, while the two-seat structure and October 4 first-round timeline keep second-place positioning fluid ahead of final campaign pushes. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with no single contender pulling clear.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$15,104End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from July 2026 shows Renato Casagrande (PSB) dominating first place with 24–32% support across scenarios, leaving a fragmented contest for second among Paulo Hartung (PSD), Sérgio Meneguelli (PSD), Rose de Freitas (MDB), Maguinha Malta (PL), and Fabiano Contarato (PT). July surveys placed Hartung near 23% or Meneguelli at 17% in alternate fields, with the rest clustered at 6–12%, reflecting divided center-right and left-leaning support plus high undecided shares. Candidate registrations closed in mid-August without major new alliances or withdrawals that have shifted the field, while the two-seat structure and October 4 first-round timeline keep second-place positioning fluid ahead of final campaign pushes. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with no single contender pulling clear.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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