Current forecasts from multiple models place Beijing’s September 17 maximum near 29–31 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, producing the tight market clustering around 30–32 °C. Limited insolation from variable cloud cover, modest boundary-layer mixing, and typical late-summer humidity suppress stronger daytime heating relative to historical September maxima near 26 °C. Model spread arises mainly from differences in simulated cloud timing and urban heat-island effects, with newer runs showing slight upward revision potential if skies clear earlier. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration and refreshed global ensembles later today will likely narrow the implied probabilities before the 24-hour observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 17?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 17?
31°C 36%
30°C 28%
32°C 18%
29°C 12%
NEW
$12,203 Vol.
NEW
$12,203 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
4%
29°C
12%
30°C
28%
31°C
36%
32°C
18%
33°C
3%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 36%
30°C 28%
32°C 18%
29°C 12%
NEW
$12,203 Vol.
NEW
$12,203 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
25°C or below
$617 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,177 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$919 Vol.
2%
28°C
$775 Vol.
4%
29°C
$1,071 Vol.
12%
30°C
$1,603 Vol.
28%
31°C
$1,072 Vol.
36%
32°C
$2,966 Vol.
18%
33°C
$874 Vol.
3%
34°C
$25 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$1,104 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models place Beijing’s September 17 maximum near 29–31 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, producing the tight market clustering around 30–32 °C. Limited insolation from variable cloud cover, modest boundary-layer mixing, and typical late-summer humidity suppress stronger daytime heating relative to historical September maxima near 26 °C. Model spread arises mainly from differences in simulated cloud timing and urban heat-island effects, with newer runs showing slight upward revision potential if skies clear earlier. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration and refreshed global ensembles later today will likely narrow the implied probabilities before the 24-hour observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$12,203End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models place Beijing’s September 17 maximum near 29–31 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, producing the tight market clustering around 30–32 °C. Limited insolation from variable cloud cover, modest boundary-layer mixing, and typical late-summer humidity suppress stronger daytime heating relative to historical September maxima near 26 °C. Model spread arises mainly from differences in simulated cloud timing and urban heat-island effects, with newer runs showing slight upward revision potential if skies clear earlier. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration and refreshed global ensembles later today will likely narrow the implied probabilities before the 24-hour observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,203End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models place Beijing’s September 17 maximum near 29–31 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, producing the tight market clustering around 30–32 °C. Limited insolation from variable cloud cover, modest boundary-layer mixing, and typical late-summer humidity suppress stronger daytime heating relative to historical September maxima near 26 °C. Model spread arises mainly from differences in simulated cloud timing and urban heat-island effects, with newer runs showing slight upward revision potential if skies clear earlier. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration and refreshed global ensembles later today will likely narrow the implied probabilities before the 24-hour observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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