**Forecast consensus points to a Beijing minimum near 18–19°C on September 17 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly-to-easterly winds, but trader odds remain closely split because small differences in cloud cover and wind speed can shift the overnight low by several degrees through varying rates of radiative cooling.** Clearer intervals would enhance long-wave radiation loss from the surface, favoring the market’s leading 14°C-or-below outcome, while increased low-level moisture or slightly stronger mixing would limit cooling and support the near-equal probability attached to 24°C or higher. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and Beijing Meteorological Service consistently shows 18–19°C lows with minimal precipitation risk, yet ensemble spreads in global models highlight the sensitivity of the nocturnal boundary layer during this transitional autumn period. Traders appear to be weighting both the baseline climatological range (historical mid-September minima around 16–20°C) and the potential for modest forecast adjustments before the 24-hour period ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 17?
24°C or higher 82%
14°C or below 43%
21°C 40%
22°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
14°C or below
43%
15°C
22%
16°C
21%
17°C
22%
18°C
22%
19°C
22%
20°C
22%
21°C
40%
22°C
40%
23°C
16%
24°C or higher
82%
24°C or higher 82%
14°C or below 43%
21°C 40%
22°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
14°C or below
$82 Vol.
43%
15°C
$8 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
22%
19°C
$98 Vol.
22%
20°C
$132 Vol.
22%
21°C
$0 Vol.
40%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C
$0 Vol.
16%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a Beijing minimum near 18–19°C on September 17 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly-to-easterly winds, but trader odds remain closely split because small differences in cloud cover and wind speed can shift the overnight low by several degrees through varying rates of radiative cooling.**
Clearer intervals would enhance long-wave radiation loss from the surface, favoring the market’s leading 14°C-or-below outcome, while increased low-level moisture or slightly stronger mixing would limit cooling and support the near-equal probability attached to 24°C or higher. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and Beijing Meteorological Service consistently shows 18–19°C lows with minimal precipitation risk, yet ensemble spreads in global models highlight the sensitivity of the nocturnal boundary layer during this transitional autumn period. Traders appear to be weighting both the baseline climatological range (historical mid-September minima around 16–20°C) and the potential for modest forecast adjustments before the 24-hour period ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$320End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a Beijing minimum near 18–19°C on September 17 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly-to-easterly winds, but trader odds remain closely split because small differences in cloud cover and wind speed can shift the overnight low by several degrees through varying rates of radiative cooling.**
Clearer intervals would enhance long-wave radiation loss from the surface, favoring the market’s leading 14°C-or-below outcome, while increased low-level moisture or slightly stronger mixing would limit cooling and support the near-equal probability attached to 24°C or higher. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and Beijing Meteorological Service consistently shows 18–19°C lows with minimal precipitation risk, yet ensemble spreads in global models highlight the sensitivity of the nocturnal boundary layer during this transitional autumn period. Traders appear to be weighting both the baseline climatological range (historical mid-September minima around 16–20°C) and the potential for modest forecast adjustments before the 24-hour period ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$320End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus points to a Beijing minimum near 18–19°C on September 17 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly-to-easterly winds, but trader odds remain closely split because small differences in cloud cover and wind speed can shift the overnight low by several degrees through varying rates of radiative cooling.** Clearer intervals would enhance long-wave radiation loss from the surface, favoring the market’s leading 14°C-or-below outcome, while increased low-level moisture or slightly stronger mixing would limit cooling and support the near-equal probability attached to 24°C or higher. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and Beijing Meteorological Service consistently shows 18–19°C lows with minimal precipitation risk, yet ensemble spreads in global models highlight the sensitivity of the nocturnal boundary layer during this transitional autumn period. Traders appear to be weighting both the baseline climatological range (historical mid-September minima around 16–20°C) and the potential for modest forecast adjustments before the 24-hour period ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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