Current forecast models from sources including GFS and regional agencies point to a Beijing minimum temperature on September 18 in the 19–21°C range, driven by southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and a modest chance of scattered showers that limit overnight radiative cooling. This positioning supports elevated market-implied odds for 24°C or higher while keeping the 14°C-or-below outcome competitive amid typical late-summer variability and model spread. Historical September 18 lows average near 15.5°C, so the current warmer signal reflects recent atmospheric patterns rather than climatology. Traders will watch updated model runs and official observations through the night of the 17th–18th for any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind that could alter the overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 18?
14°C or below 81%
24°C or higher 81%
15°C 39%
17°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
14°C or below
81%
15°C
39%
16°C
23%
17°C
39%
18°C
26%
19°C
24%
20°C
21%
21°C
38%
22°C
21%
23°C
39%
24°C or higher
81%
14°C or below 81%
24°C or higher 81%
15°C 39%
17°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
81%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
23%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$0 Vol.
24%
20°C
$15 Vol.
21%
21°C
$0 Vol.
38%
22°C
$0 Vol.
21%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including GFS and regional agencies point to a Beijing minimum temperature on September 18 in the 19–21°C range, driven by southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and a modest chance of scattered showers that limit overnight radiative cooling. This positioning supports elevated market-implied odds for 24°C or higher while keeping the 14°C-or-below outcome competitive amid typical late-summer variability and model spread. Historical September 18 lows average near 15.5°C, so the current warmer signal reflects recent atmospheric patterns rather than climatology. Traders will watch updated model runs and official observations through the night of the 17th–18th for any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind that could alter the overnight minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$15End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including GFS and regional agencies point to a Beijing minimum temperature on September 18 in the 19–21°C range, driven by southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and a modest chance of scattered showers that limit overnight radiative cooling. This positioning supports elevated market-implied odds for 24°C or higher while keeping the 14°C-or-below outcome competitive amid typical late-summer variability and model spread. Historical September 18 lows average near 15.5°C, so the current warmer signal reflects recent atmospheric patterns rather than climatology. Traders will watch updated model runs and official observations through the night of the 17th–18th for any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind that could alter the overnight minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including GFS and regional agencies point to a Beijing minimum temperature on September 18 in the 19–21°C range, driven by southerly flow, partly cloudy skies, and a modest chance of scattered showers that limit overnight radiative cooling. This positioning supports elevated market-implied odds for 24°C or higher while keeping the 14°C-or-below outcome competitive amid typical late-summer variability and model spread. Historical September 18 lows average near 15.5°C, so the current warmer signal reflects recent atmospheric patterns rather than climatology. Traders will watch updated model runs and official observations through the night of the 17th–18th for any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind that could alter the overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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