**Trader consensus heavily favors a 16°C low in Beijing on September 16, reflecting model consensus and current observations of clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds that support moderate radiative cooling overnight.** Recent forecasts from sources including GFS data and local meteorological updates indicate minimum temperatures clustering near this threshold, consistent with typical early autumn conditions following warmer daytime highs around 28–31°C. The strong implied probability accounts for limited forecast spread and stable high-pressure influence limiting rapid temperature drops. A realistic challenge would require a sharper-than-expected increase in cloud cover or a shift in wind patterns that reduces overnight cooling, potentially pushing the low several degrees higher or lower depending on timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 16?
16°C 98%
13°C 18%
14°C 17%
15°C 10%
$486 Vol.
$486 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
11°C or below
6%
12°C
6%
13°C
18%
14°C
17%
15°C
10%
16°C
98%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
16°C 98%
13°C 18%
14°C 17%
15°C 10%
$486 Vol.
$486 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
6%
12°C
$20 Vol.
6%
13°C
$0 Vol.
18%
14°C
$0 Vol.
17%
15°C
$38 Vol.
10%
16°C
$38 Vol.
98%
17°C
$146 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$203 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 16°C low in Beijing on September 16, reflecting model consensus and current observations of clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds that support moderate radiative cooling overnight.** Recent forecasts from sources including GFS data and local meteorological updates indicate minimum temperatures clustering near this threshold, consistent with typical early autumn conditions following warmer daytime highs around 28–31°C. The strong implied probability accounts for limited forecast spread and stable high-pressure influence limiting rapid temperature drops. A realistic challenge would require a sharper-than-expected increase in cloud cover or a shift in wind patterns that reduces overnight cooling, potentially pushing the low several degrees higher or lower depending on timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$486End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 16°C low in Beijing on September 16, reflecting model consensus and current observations of clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds that support moderate radiative cooling overnight.** Recent forecasts from sources including GFS data and local meteorological updates indicate minimum temperatures clustering near this threshold, consistent with typical early autumn conditions following warmer daytime highs around 28–31°C. The strong implied probability accounts for limited forecast spread and stable high-pressure influence limiting rapid temperature drops. A realistic challenge would require a sharper-than-expected increase in cloud cover or a shift in wind patterns that reduces overnight cooling, potentially pushing the low several degrees higher or lower depending on timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$486End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors a 16°C low in Beijing on September 16, reflecting model consensus and current observations of clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds that support moderate radiative cooling overnight.** Recent forecasts from sources including GFS data and local meteorological updates indicate minimum temperatures clustering near this threshold, consistent with typical early autumn conditions following warmer daytime highs around 28–31°C. The strong implied probability accounts for limited forecast spread and stable high-pressure influence limiting rapid temperature drops. A realistic challenge would require a sharper-than-expected increase in cloud cover or a shift in wind patterns that reduces overnight cooling, potentially pushing the low several degrees higher or lower depending on timing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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