Trader consensus points to 94-95°F as Houston’s highest temperature on September 16, driven by National Weather Service forecast models showing persistent high pressure, light winds, and Gulf moisture limiting overnight cooling while daytime insolation peaks. These conditions align with climatological norms for mid-September, when average highs reach 90-95°F and record warmth episodes remain uncommon without strong subtropical ridging. Recent observations confirm minimal frontal influence or cloud cover that could suppress maxima, keeping probabilities for 96°F-plus outcomes low at 14%. Updated model runs and surface analyses from NOAA will refine resolution thresholds ahead of evening verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on September 16?
Highest temperature in Houston on September 16?
94-95°F 69%
96-97°F 17%
92-93°F 16%
90-91°F <1%
$21,897 Vol.
$21,897 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
81°F or below
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
16%
94-95°F
69%
96-97°F
17%
98-99°F
<1%
100°F or higher
<1%
94-95°F 69%
96-97°F 17%
92-93°F 16%
90-91°F <1%
$21,897 Vol.
$21,897 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
81°F or below
$224 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$193 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$624 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$413 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$917 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$1,280 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$5,146 Vol.
16%
94-95°F
$5,787 Vol.
69%
96-97°F
$6,637 Vol.
17%
98-99°F
$337 Vol.
<1%
100°F or higher
$338 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus points to 94-95°F as Houston’s highest temperature on September 16, driven by National Weather Service forecast models showing persistent high pressure, light winds, and Gulf moisture limiting overnight cooling while daytime insolation peaks. These conditions align with climatological norms for mid-September, when average highs reach 90-95°F and record warmth episodes remain uncommon without strong subtropical ridging. Recent observations confirm minimal frontal influence or cloud cover that could suppress maxima, keeping probabilities for 96°F-plus outcomes low at 14%. Updated model runs and surface analyses from NOAA will refine resolution thresholds ahead of evening verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$21,897End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus points to 94-95°F as Houston’s highest temperature on September 16, driven by National Weather Service forecast models showing persistent high pressure, light winds, and Gulf moisture limiting overnight cooling while daytime insolation peaks. These conditions align with climatological norms for mid-September, when average highs reach 90-95°F and record warmth episodes remain uncommon without strong subtropical ridging. Recent observations confirm minimal frontal influence or cloud cover that could suppress maxima, keeping probabilities for 96°F-plus outcomes low at 14%. Updated model runs and surface analyses from NOAA will refine resolution thresholds ahead of evening verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,897End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus points to 94-95°F as Houston’s highest temperature on September 16, driven by National Weather Service forecast models showing persistent high pressure, light winds, and Gulf moisture limiting overnight cooling while daytime insolation peaks. These conditions align with climatological norms for mid-September, when average highs reach 90-95°F and record warmth episodes remain uncommon without strong subtropical ridging. Recent observations confirm minimal frontal influence or cloud cover that could suppress maxima, keeping probabilities for 96°F-plus outcomes low at 14%. Updated model runs and surface analyses from NOAA will refine resolution thresholds ahead of evening verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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