Recent ensemble forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a highest temperature in Munich on September 18 most likely between 19–21°C, consistent with the market's leading implied probabilities for 21°C (39.5%), 20°C (21%), and 22°C (20.5%). A building high-pressure ridge and moderate westerly flow are suppressing significant warming or instability, with mostly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation expected. These conditions align closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 19.4°C for the date. Low uncertainty in the short-range guidance two days ahead supports the tight clustering of probabilities around 20–22°C, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust the exact maximum within that band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on September 18?
Highest temperature in Munich on September 18?
21°C 42%
20°C 29%
22°C 19%
19°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
17°C or below
3%
18°C
6%
19°C
12%
20°C
29%
21°C
42%
22°C
19%
23°C
13%
24°C
2%
25°C
3%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 42%
20°C 29%
22°C 19%
19°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
18°C
$0 Vol.
6%
19°C
$0 Vol.
12%
20°C
$54 Vol.
29%
21°C
$42 Vol.
42%
22°C
$0 Vol.
19%
23°C
$80 Vol.
13%
24°C
$167 Vol.
2%
25°C
$160 Vol.
3%
26°C
$159 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$159 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a highest temperature in Munich on September 18 most likely between 19–21°C, consistent with the market's leading implied probabilities for 21°C (39.5%), 20°C (21%), and 22°C (20.5%). A building high-pressure ridge and moderate westerly flow are suppressing significant warming or instability, with mostly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation expected. These conditions align closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 19.4°C for the date. Low uncertainty in the short-range guidance two days ahead supports the tight clustering of probabilities around 20–22°C, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust the exact maximum within that band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$822End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a highest temperature in Munich on September 18 most likely between 19–21°C, consistent with the market's leading implied probabilities for 21°C (39.5%), 20°C (21%), and 22°C (20.5%). A building high-pressure ridge and moderate westerly flow are suppressing significant warming or instability, with mostly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation expected. These conditions align closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 19.4°C for the date. Low uncertainty in the short-range guidance two days ahead supports the tight clustering of probabilities around 20–22°C, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust the exact maximum within that band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$822End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS indicate a highest temperature in Munich on September 18 most likely between 19–21°C, consistent with the market's leading implied probabilities for 21°C (39.5%), 20°C (21%), and 22°C (20.5%). A building high-pressure ridge and moderate westerly flow are suppressing significant warming or instability, with mostly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation expected. These conditions align closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 19.4°C for the date. Low uncertainty in the short-range guidance two days ahead supports the tight clustering of probabilities around 20–22°C, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could adjust the exact maximum within that band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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