Recent European model consensus, including ECMWF runs, points to a cool nocturnal air mass over southern Bavaria on September 18, supporting the market-implied 50% probability for a minimum of 5 °C or below in Munich. Clear skies and light winds overnight favor strong radiative cooling, potentially allowing temperatures to fall several degrees below the 1991–2020 average low of 9.8 °C. Ensemble spreads remain modest yet include members reaching single digits, while daytime maxima near 20 °C limit recovery. Updated DWD guidance and next model cycles will refine boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover, key variables that could shift the distribution toward the clustered 6–8 °C outcomes currently priced near 20% each.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 18?
5°C or below 100%
8°C 40%
9°C 40%
7°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
5°C or below
100%
6°C
38%
7°C
39%
8°C
40%
9°C
40%
10°C
19%
11°C
11%
12°C
7%
13°C
5%
14°C
5%
15°C or higher
4%
5°C or below 100%
8°C 40%
9°C 40%
7°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
5°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
6°C
$0 Vol.
38%
7°C
$0 Vol.
39%
8°C
$0 Vol.
40%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
19%
11°C
$0 Vol.
11%
12°C
$0 Vol.
7%
13°C
$0 Vol.
5%
14°C
$0 Vol.
5%
15°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European model consensus, including ECMWF runs, points to a cool nocturnal air mass over southern Bavaria on September 18, supporting the market-implied 50% probability for a minimum of 5 °C or below in Munich. Clear skies and light winds overnight favor strong radiative cooling, potentially allowing temperatures to fall several degrees below the 1991–2020 average low of 9.8 °C. Ensemble spreads remain modest yet include members reaching single digits, while daytime maxima near 20 °C limit recovery. Updated DWD guidance and next model cycles will refine boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover, key variables that could shift the distribution toward the clustered 6–8 °C outcomes currently priced near 20% each.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European model consensus, including ECMWF runs, points to a cool nocturnal air mass over southern Bavaria on September 18, supporting the market-implied 50% probability for a minimum of 5 °C or below in Munich. Clear skies and light winds overnight favor strong radiative cooling, potentially allowing temperatures to fall several degrees below the 1991–2020 average low of 9.8 °C. Ensemble spreads remain modest yet include members reaching single digits, while daytime maxima near 20 °C limit recovery. Updated DWD guidance and next model cycles will refine boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover, key variables that could shift the distribution toward the clustered 6–8 °C outcomes currently priced near 20% each.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent European model consensus, including ECMWF runs, points to a cool nocturnal air mass over southern Bavaria on September 18, supporting the market-implied 50% probability for a minimum of 5 °C or below in Munich. Clear skies and light winds overnight favor strong radiative cooling, potentially allowing temperatures to fall several degrees below the 1991–2020 average low of 9.8 °C. Ensemble spreads remain modest yet include members reaching single digits, while daytime maxima near 20 °C limit recovery. Updated DWD guidance and next model cycles will refine boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover, key variables that could shift the distribution toward the clustered 6–8 °C outcomes currently priced near 20% each.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions