**Forecast models from sources including Météo-France analogs, Met Office, and Weather Atlas show a consensus maximum of 23–25 °C for Paris on 30 August 2026, driven by a southwest flow of Atlantic air under mostly cloudy skies.** This setup keeps daytime heating modest, with highs expected near or slightly below the late-August climatological average of ~24.5 °C. Recent cooling from showers and unsettled conditions on 28–29 August has reinforced the moderate outlook, while low precipitation probabilities (often <20 %) limit additional evaporative cooling or cloud variability that could shift the peak. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 21–25 °C (each ~18.5 %) reflects genuine forecast spread in ensemble runs: small differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or exact wind direction can easily move the daily maximum by 1–2 °C within that band. Higher outcomes (26 °C+) carry low odds because no heat-advection signal or clear-sky amplification is present in current guidance, consistent with the absence of blocking highs or southerly continental flow. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any re-pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 30?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 30?
24°C 49%
25°C 37%
23°C 22%
21°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
16%
22°C
9%
23°C
22%
24°C
38%
25°C
25%
26°C
11%
27°C or higher
7%
24°C 49%
25°C 37%
23°C 22%
21°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
16%
22°C
$0 Vol.
9%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$10 Vol.
38%
25°C
$0 Vol.
25%
26°C
$11 Vol.
11%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including Météo-France analogs, Met Office, and Weather Atlas show a consensus maximum of 23–25 °C for Paris on 30 August 2026, driven by a southwest flow of Atlantic air under mostly cloudy skies.**
This setup keeps daytime heating modest, with highs expected near or slightly below the late-August climatological average of ~24.5 °C. Recent cooling from showers and unsettled conditions on 28–29 August has reinforced the moderate outlook, while low precipitation probabilities (often <20 %) limit additional evaporative cooling or cloud variability that could shift the peak.
The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 21–25 °C (each ~18.5 %) reflects genuine forecast spread in ensemble runs: small differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or exact wind direction can easily move the daily maximum by 1–2 °C within that band. Higher outcomes (26 °C+) carry low odds because no heat-advection signal or clear-sky amplification is present in current guidance, consistent with the absence of blocking highs or southerly continental flow. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any re-pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$21End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources including Météo-France analogs, Met Office, and Weather Atlas show a consensus maximum of 23–25 °C for Paris on 30 August 2026, driven by a southwest flow of Atlantic air under mostly cloudy skies.**
This setup keeps daytime heating modest, with highs expected near or slightly below the late-August climatological average of ~24.5 °C. Recent cooling from showers and unsettled conditions on 28–29 August has reinforced the moderate outlook, while low precipitation probabilities (often <20 %) limit additional evaporative cooling or cloud variability that could shift the peak.
The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 21–25 °C (each ~18.5 %) reflects genuine forecast spread in ensemble runs: small differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or exact wind direction can easily move the daily maximum by 1–2 °C within that band. Higher outcomes (26 °C+) carry low odds because no heat-advection signal or clear-sky amplification is present in current guidance, consistent with the absence of blocking highs or southerly continental flow. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any re-pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources including Météo-France analogs, Met Office, and Weather Atlas show a consensus maximum of 23–25 °C for Paris on 30 August 2026, driven by a southwest flow of Atlantic air under mostly cloudy skies.** This setup keeps daytime heating modest, with highs expected near or slightly below the late-August climatological average of ~24.5 °C. Recent cooling from showers and unsettled conditions on 28–29 August has reinforced the moderate outlook, while low precipitation probabilities (often <20 %) limit additional evaporative cooling or cloud variability that could shift the peak. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 21–25 °C (each ~18.5 %) reflects genuine forecast spread in ensemble runs: small differences in cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, or exact wind direction can easily move the daily maximum by 1–2 °C within that band. Higher outcomes (26 °C+) carry low odds because no heat-advection signal or clear-sky amplification is present in current guidance, consistent with the absence of blocking highs or southerly continental flow. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalysts for any re-pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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