Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Shanghai's September 18 high will likely peak near 28–30°C amid a seasonal cooling trend and northeasterly flow, with light rain or increased cloud cover expected to moderate afternoon heating. Persistent onshore winds and elevated humidity limit radiative warming while preventing significant advection of warmer air masses, keeping the maximum below late-summer peaks. Model runs show minor spread in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing, creating the tight 28–29°C market split at 39% each; a slightly drier or clearer afternoon could push toward 30°C, whereas earlier or heavier showers would favor the lower end. Updated NHC and local agency guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 18?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 18?
28°C 39%
29°C 39%
30°C 12%
26°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
7%
27°C
7%
28°C
39%
29°C
39%
30°C
12%
31°C
6%
32°C
4%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
28°C 39%
29°C 39%
30°C 12%
26°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
24°C or below
$117 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$63 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
7%
27°C
$5 Vol.
7%
28°C
$143 Vol.
39%
29°C
$13 Vol.
39%
30°C
$112 Vol.
12%
31°C
$10 Vol.
6%
32°C
$0 Vol.
4%
33°C
$32 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$111 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Shanghai's September 18 high will likely peak near 28–30°C amid a seasonal cooling trend and northeasterly flow, with light rain or increased cloud cover expected to moderate afternoon heating. Persistent onshore winds and elevated humidity limit radiative warming while preventing significant advection of warmer air masses, keeping the maximum below late-summer peaks. Model runs show minor spread in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing, creating the tight 28–29°C market split at 39% each; a slightly drier or clearer afternoon could push toward 30°C, whereas earlier or heavier showers would favor the lower end. Updated NHC and local agency guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$606End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Shanghai's September 18 high will likely peak near 28–30°C amid a seasonal cooling trend and northeasterly flow, with light rain or increased cloud cover expected to moderate afternoon heating. Persistent onshore winds and elevated humidity limit radiative warming while preventing significant advection of warmer air masses, keeping the maximum below late-summer peaks. Model runs show minor spread in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing, creating the tight 28–29°C market split at 39% each; a slightly drier or clearer afternoon could push toward 30°C, whereas earlier or heavier showers would favor the lower end. Updated NHC and local agency guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$606End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Shanghai's September 18 high will likely peak near 28–30°C amid a seasonal cooling trend and northeasterly flow, with light rain or increased cloud cover expected to moderate afternoon heating. Persistent onshore winds and elevated humidity limit radiative warming while preventing significant advection of warmer air masses, keeping the maximum below late-summer peaks. Model runs show minor spread in boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing, creating the tight 28–29°C market split at 39% each; a slightly drier or clearer afternoon could push toward 30°C, whereas earlier or heavier showers would favor the lower end. Updated NHC and local agency guidance over the next 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions