Recent model consensus from sources including the National Meteorological Center of China and GFS runs points to an overnight low of 24 °C in Shanghai on September 18, driven by a persistent warm, moist air mass advected by northeast winds and increased cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September, when average lows hover near 22–24 °C amid transitional monsoon conditions. Scattered light rain or drizzle expected during the period may further moderate temperature drops, while dew points near 23 °C sustain high humidity and reduce cooling potential. Updated forecasts through the weekend show minimal model spread, supporting trader emphasis on the 24 °C outcome as the most probable resolution threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 18?
24°C 50%
25°C 37%
19°C or below 35%
22°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
19°C or below
35%
20°C
19%
21°C
22%
22°C
27%
23°C
30%
24°C
46%
25°C
37%
26°C
20%
27°C
15%
28°C
20%
29°C or higher
21%
24°C 50%
25°C 37%
19°C or below 35%
22°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
35%
20°C
$0 Vol.
19%
21°C
$0 Vol.
22%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$188 Vol.
30%
24°C
$351 Vol.
46%
25°C
$0 Vol.
37%
26°C
$0 Vol.
20%
27°C
$0 Vol.
15%
28°C
$0 Vol.
20%
29°C or higher
$0 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including the National Meteorological Center of China and GFS runs points to an overnight low of 24 °C in Shanghai on September 18, driven by a persistent warm, moist air mass advected by northeast winds and increased cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September, when average lows hover near 22–24 °C amid transitional monsoon conditions. Scattered light rain or drizzle expected during the period may further moderate temperature drops, while dew points near 23 °C sustain high humidity and reduce cooling potential. Updated forecasts through the weekend show minimal model spread, supporting trader emphasis on the 24 °C outcome as the most probable resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$539End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including the National Meteorological Center of China and GFS runs points to an overnight low of 24 °C in Shanghai on September 18, driven by a persistent warm, moist air mass advected by northeast winds and increased cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September, when average lows hover near 22–24 °C amid transitional monsoon conditions. Scattered light rain or drizzle expected during the period may further moderate temperature drops, while dew points near 23 °C sustain high humidity and reduce cooling potential. Updated forecasts through the weekend show minimal model spread, supporting trader emphasis on the 24 °C outcome as the most probable resolution threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$539End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including the National Meteorological Center of China and GFS runs points to an overnight low of 24 °C in Shanghai on September 18, driven by a persistent warm, moist air mass advected by northeast winds and increased cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September, when average lows hover near 22–24 °C amid transitional monsoon conditions. Scattered light rain or drizzle expected during the period may further moderate temperature drops, while dew points near 23 °C sustain high humidity and reduce cooling potential. Updated forecasts through the weekend show minimal model spread, supporting trader emphasis on the 24 °C outcome as the most probable resolution threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions