Forecast models from multiple agencies and recent observations indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 16 will reach 21°C under stable subtropical conditions, with light northeast winds, partly cloudy skies, and no significant frontal activity. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September, where minimum temperatures typically range 20–23°C amid moderating monsoon influences. Trader consensus at 99.6% for 21°C reflects the tight clustering of official guidance around this threshold, with limited divergence in ensemble runs. Only an unseasonal cold surge or localized measurement anomaly at official stations could shift the recorded minimum, though current atmospheric patterns show no supporting signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 16?
21°C 99.6%
20°C <1%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
$14,347 Vol.
$14,347 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 99.6%
20°C <1%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
$14,347 Vol.
$14,347 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
17°C or below
$130 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$144 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$469 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$160 Vol.
1%
21°C
$930 Vol.
100%
22°C
$2,601 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$7,290 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,233 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$130 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$130 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$1,130 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from multiple agencies and recent observations indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 16 will reach 21°C under stable subtropical conditions, with light northeast winds, partly cloudy skies, and no significant frontal activity. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September, where minimum temperatures typically range 20–23°C amid moderating monsoon influences. Trader consensus at 99.6% for 21°C reflects the tight clustering of official guidance around this threshold, with limited divergence in ensemble runs. Only an unseasonal cold surge or localized measurement anomaly at official stations could shift the recorded minimum, though current atmospheric patterns show no supporting signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$14,347End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from multiple agencies and recent observations indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 16 will reach 21°C under stable subtropical conditions, with light northeast winds, partly cloudy skies, and no significant frontal activity. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September, where minimum temperatures typically range 20–23°C amid moderating monsoon influences. Trader consensus at 99.6% for 21°C reflects the tight clustering of official guidance around this threshold, with limited divergence in ensemble runs. Only an unseasonal cold surge or localized measurement anomaly at official stations could shift the recorded minimum, though current atmospheric patterns show no supporting signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,347End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from multiple agencies and recent observations indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 16 will reach 21°C under stable subtropical conditions, with light northeast winds, partly cloudy skies, and no significant frontal activity. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September, where minimum temperatures typically range 20–23°C amid moderating monsoon influences. Trader consensus at 99.6% for 21°C reflects the tight clustering of official guidance around this threshold, with limited divergence in ensemble runs. Only an unseasonal cold surge or localized measurement anomaly at official stations could shift the recorded minimum, though current atmospheric patterns show no supporting signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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