**Frequent thunderstorms, high humidity, and persistent cloud cover are keeping overnight lows in Guangzhou tightly clustered near 25–27°C for August 30.** Forecasts from multiple sources indicate a minimum around 26°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with 80–95% rain chances and light variable winds. Abundant atmospheric moisture (dew points near 27–28°C) and reduced radiational cooling from cloud cover limit overnight temperature drops, while scattered convection can produce localized variations of 1–2°C. Historical August 30 lows average ~25°C but have ranged from the low 20s in cooler, clearer episodes to the upper 20s in humid, rainy ones; the current pattern aligns with the latter. With leading market outcomes (24–27°C) nearly even at 24–25.5% implied probability, traders appear to be pricing model uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud thickness rather than any single dominant signal. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or international ensembles over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 30?
22°C or below 50%
24°C 49%
25°C 49%
28°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
22°C or below
50%
23°C
45%
24°C
49%
25°C
49%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
49%
29°C
49%
30°C
2%
31°C
20%
32°C or higher
49%
22°C or below 50%
24°C 49%
25°C 49%
28°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
50%
23°C
$0 Vol.
45%
24°C
$0 Vol.
49%
25°C
$0 Vol.
49%
26°C
$0 Vol.
26%
27°C
$0 Vol.
26%
28°C
$0 Vol.
49%
29°C
$0 Vol.
49%
30°C
$0 Vol.
2%
31°C
$0 Vol.
20%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Frequent thunderstorms, high humidity, and persistent cloud cover are keeping overnight lows in Guangzhou tightly clustered near 25–27°C for August 30.**
Forecasts from multiple sources indicate a minimum around 26°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with 80–95% rain chances and light variable winds. Abundant atmospheric moisture (dew points near 27–28°C) and reduced radiational cooling from cloud cover limit overnight temperature drops, while scattered convection can produce localized variations of 1–2°C. Historical August 30 lows average ~25°C but have ranged from the low 20s in cooler, clearer episodes to the upper 20s in humid, rainy ones; the current pattern aligns with the latter.
With leading market outcomes (24–27°C) nearly even at 24–25.5% implied probability, traders appear to be pricing model uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud thickness rather than any single dominant signal. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or international ensembles over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Frequent thunderstorms, high humidity, and persistent cloud cover are keeping overnight lows in Guangzhou tightly clustered near 25–27°C for August 30.**
Forecasts from multiple sources indicate a minimum around 26°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with 80–95% rain chances and light variable winds. Abundant atmospheric moisture (dew points near 27–28°C) and reduced radiational cooling from cloud cover limit overnight temperature drops, while scattered convection can produce localized variations of 1–2°C. Historical August 30 lows average ~25°C but have ranged from the low 20s in cooler, clearer episodes to the upper 20s in humid, rainy ones; the current pattern aligns with the latter.
With leading market outcomes (24–27°C) nearly even at 24–25.5% implied probability, traders appear to be pricing model uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud thickness rather than any single dominant signal. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or international ensembles over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Frequent thunderstorms, high humidity, and persistent cloud cover are keeping overnight lows in Guangzhou tightly clustered near 25–27°C for August 30.** Forecasts from multiple sources indicate a minimum around 26°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with 80–95% rain chances and light variable winds. Abundant atmospheric moisture (dew points near 27–28°C) and reduced radiational cooling from cloud cover limit overnight temperature drops, while scattered convection can produce localized variations of 1–2°C. Historical August 30 lows average ~25°C but have ranged from the low 20s in cooler, clearer episodes to the upper 20s in humid, rainy ones; the current pattern aligns with the latter. With leading market outcomes (24–27°C) nearly even at 24–25.5% implied probability, traders appear to be pricing model uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud thickness rather than any single dominant signal. Updated guidance from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration or international ensembles over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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