Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Houston shows Thursday night lows likely in the upper 70s amid easterly flow, high humidity, and a 40-50% chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling while cloud cover and any rainfall could modestly suppress the daily minimum. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–81°F versus the 73°F-or-below bucket reflects uncertainty in exact storm timing, dew-point advection, and boundary-layer mixing; clearer skies or stronger winds would favor readings near 80°F, whereas earlier or heavier precipitation could allow a dip toward the mid-70s. Updated model runs tonight and early Thursday will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 17?
73°F or below 84%
78-79°F 47%
74-75°F 38%
76-77°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
73°F or below
84%
74-75°F
38%
76-77°F
38%
78-79°F
26%
80-81°F
33%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
38%
86-87°F
38%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
2%
92°F or higher
2%
73°F or below 84%
78-79°F 47%
74-75°F 38%
76-77°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
84%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
38%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
38%
78-79°F
$54 Vol.
26%
80-81°F
$49 Vol.
33%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
22%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
38%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
38%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
3%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
2%
92°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Houston shows Thursday night lows likely in the upper 70s amid easterly flow, high humidity, and a 40-50% chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling while cloud cover and any rainfall could modestly suppress the daily minimum. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–81°F versus the 73°F-or-below bucket reflects uncertainty in exact storm timing, dew-point advection, and boundary-layer mixing; clearer skies or stronger winds would favor readings near 80°F, whereas earlier or heavier precipitation could allow a dip toward the mid-70s. Updated model runs tonight and early Thursday will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$104End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Houston shows Thursday night lows likely in the upper 70s amid easterly flow, high humidity, and a 40-50% chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling while cloud cover and any rainfall could modestly suppress the daily minimum. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–81°F versus the 73°F-or-below bucket reflects uncertainty in exact storm timing, dew-point advection, and boundary-layer mixing; clearer skies or stronger winds would favor readings near 80°F, whereas earlier or heavier precipitation could allow a dip toward the mid-70s. Updated model runs tonight and early Thursday will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$104End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Houston shows Thursday night lows likely in the upper 70s amid easterly flow, high humidity, and a 40-50% chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling while cloud cover and any rainfall could modestly suppress the daily minimum. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–81°F versus the 73°F-or-below bucket reflects uncertainty in exact storm timing, dew-point advection, and boundary-layer mixing; clearer skies or stronger winds would favor readings near 80°F, whereas earlier or heavier precipitation could allow a dip toward the mid-70s. Updated model runs tonight and early Thursday will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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