Recent weather model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions Milan’s September 17 minimum near 17–19 °C, driven by an approaching low-pressure system bringing widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and easterly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from sources including the Met Office and regional forecasts consistently shows overnight lows in this range, with dew points near 17–18 °C supporting modest temperature drops under humid, overcast conditions. Trader emphasis on the 23 °C-or-higher outcome alongside elevated probabilities for 17–18 °C reflects model spread in exact timing of clearing and potential for slightly warmer boundary-layer air, while lower bins capture downside risk if heavier rain enhances cooling. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 17?
23°C or higher 75%
20°C 38%
21°C 38%
22°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
13°C or below
3%
14°C
17%
15°C
21%
16°C
23%
17°C
24%
18°C
25%
19°C
22%
20°C
38%
21°C
38%
22°C
38%
23°C or higher
75%
23°C or higher 75%
20°C 38%
21°C 38%
22°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
13°C or below
$90 Vol.
3%
14°C
$10 Vol.
17%
15°C
$8 Vol.
21%
16°C
$0 Vol.
23%
17°C
$0 Vol.
24%
18°C
$0 Vol.
25%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$0 Vol.
38%
21°C
$0 Vol.
38%
22°C
$0 Vol.
38%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions Milan’s September 17 minimum near 17–19 °C, driven by an approaching low-pressure system bringing widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and easterly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from sources including the Met Office and regional forecasts consistently shows overnight lows in this range, with dew points near 17–18 °C supporting modest temperature drops under humid, overcast conditions. Trader emphasis on the 23 °C-or-higher outcome alongside elevated probabilities for 17–18 °C reflects model spread in exact timing of clearing and potential for slightly warmer boundary-layer air, while lower bins capture downside risk if heavier rain enhances cooling. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$108End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions Milan’s September 17 minimum near 17–19 °C, driven by an approaching low-pressure system bringing widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and easterly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from sources including the Met Office and regional forecasts consistently shows overnight lows in this range, with dew points near 17–18 °C supporting modest temperature drops under humid, overcast conditions. Trader emphasis on the 23 °C-or-higher outcome alongside elevated probabilities for 17–18 °C reflects model spread in exact timing of clearing and potential for slightly warmer boundary-layer air, while lower bins capture downside risk if heavier rain enhances cooling. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$108End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions Milan’s September 17 minimum near 17–19 °C, driven by an approaching low-pressure system bringing widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and easterly flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from sources including the Met Office and regional forecasts consistently shows overnight lows in this range, with dew points near 17–18 °C supporting modest temperature drops under humid, overcast conditions. Trader emphasis on the 23 °C-or-higher outcome alongside elevated probabilities for 17–18 °C reflects model spread in exact timing of clearing and potential for slightly warmer boundary-layer air, while lower bins capture downside risk if heavier rain enhances cooling. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 24 hours will refine these implied probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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