Recent forecast model consensus from GFS and European ensembles points to an overnight minimum near 13°C at Paris-Le Bourget under mostly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 12°C. Persistent cloud cover from a maritime air mass following the sharp cool-down on September 15 limits radiational cooling, keeping lows above the late-September climatological average of roughly 11°C while still allowing brief clear spells that could dip toward 11°C. Minor model differences in cloud timing and wind strength create the observed clustering around 12–13°C, with lower probabilities on 10°C or below reflecting the low likelihood of stronger clearing or northerly advection before dawn on the 17th. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance through the evening will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 17?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 17?
12°C 52%
11°C 23%
13°C 21%
10°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
8°C or below
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
6%
11°C
23%
12°C
52%
13°C
21%
14°C
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
1%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
1%
12°C 52%
11°C 23%
13°C 21%
10°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
8°C or below
$22 Vol.
1%
9°C
$0 Vol.
2%
10°C
$213 Vol.
6%
11°C
$756 Vol.
23%
12°C
$711 Vol.
52%
13°C
$792 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
2%
15°C
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$22 Vol.
1%
17°C
$24 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$35 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from GFS and European ensembles points to an overnight minimum near 13°C at Paris-Le Bourget under mostly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 12°C. Persistent cloud cover from a maritime air mass following the sharp cool-down on September 15 limits radiational cooling, keeping lows above the late-September climatological average of roughly 11°C while still allowing brief clear spells that could dip toward 11°C. Minor model differences in cloud timing and wind strength create the observed clustering around 12–13°C, with lower probabilities on 10°C or below reflecting the low likelihood of stronger clearing or northerly advection before dawn on the 17th. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance through the evening will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,575End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from GFS and European ensembles points to an overnight minimum near 13°C at Paris-Le Bourget under mostly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 12°C. Persistent cloud cover from a maritime air mass following the sharp cool-down on September 15 limits radiational cooling, keeping lows above the late-September climatological average of roughly 11°C while still allowing brief clear spells that could dip toward 11°C. Minor model differences in cloud timing and wind strength create the observed clustering around 12–13°C, with lower probabilities on 10°C or below reflecting the low likelihood of stronger clearing or northerly advection before dawn on the 17th. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance through the evening will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,575End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from GFS and European ensembles points to an overnight minimum near 13°C at Paris-Le Bourget under mostly cloudy skies and light southwesterly flow, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 12°C. Persistent cloud cover from a maritime air mass following the sharp cool-down on September 15 limits radiational cooling, keeping lows above the late-September climatological average of roughly 11°C while still allowing brief clear spells that could dip toward 11°C. Minor model differences in cloud timing and wind strength create the observed clustering around 12–13°C, with lower probabilities on 10°C or below reflecting the low likelihood of stronger clearing or northerly advection before dawn on the 17th. Updated model runs and Météo-France guidance through the evening will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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