Recent GFS and ensemble guidance indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on September 18 likely near 12–13°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, with limited overnight radiational cooling. This positions the market-implied odds around these values amid model consensus on mild conditions without strong cold advection or clear-sky extremes. Historical September lows average near 11°C, but current steering patterns and dew points support a narrower range. Traders weigh small forecast adjustments from updated model runs, as minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could differentiate between 11°C and 13°C outcomes ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 18?
10°C 35%
12°C 33%
11°C 28%
14°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
7°C or below
2%
8°C
3%
9°C
5%
10°C
35%
11°C
28%
12°C
32%
13°C
22%
14°C
25%
15°C
2%
16°C
3%
17°C or higher
3%
10°C 35%
12°C 33%
11°C 28%
14°C 25%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
8°C
$0 Vol.
3%
9°C
$0 Vol.
5%
10°C
$0 Vol.
35%
11°C
$610 Vol.
28%
12°C
$235 Vol.
32%
13°C
$252 Vol.
22%
14°C
$0 Vol.
25%
15°C
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$0 Vol.
3%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and ensemble guidance indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on September 18 likely near 12–13°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, with limited overnight radiational cooling. This positions the market-implied odds around these values amid model consensus on mild conditions without strong cold advection or clear-sky extremes. Historical September lows average near 11°C, but current steering patterns and dew points support a narrower range. Traders weigh small forecast adjustments from updated model runs, as minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could differentiate between 11°C and 13°C outcomes ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,097End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and ensemble guidance indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on September 18 likely near 12–13°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, with limited overnight radiational cooling. This positions the market-implied odds around these values amid model consensus on mild conditions without strong cold advection or clear-sky extremes. Historical September lows average near 11°C, but current steering patterns and dew points support a narrower range. Traders weigh small forecast adjustments from updated model runs, as minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could differentiate between 11°C and 13°C outcomes ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,097End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent GFS and ensemble guidance indicate a minimum temperature in Paris on September 18 likely near 12–13°C under partly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, with limited overnight radiational cooling. This positions the market-implied odds around these values amid model consensus on mild conditions without strong cold advection or clear-sky extremes. Historical September lows average near 11°C, but current steering patterns and dew points support a narrower range. Traders weigh small forecast adjustments from updated model runs, as minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could differentiate between 11°C and 13°C outcomes ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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