**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a minimum temperature of 27–28°C in Shanghai on August 28, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (27°C at 55.5% implied probability, 28°C at 38.5%).** Official and model guidance, including data from Chinese meteorological services and international providers like the Met Office, consistently project overnight lows near 27°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light rain or showers and light easterly to southeasterly winds. These conditions limit radiative cooling, sustaining elevated nighttime temperatures typical of late-summer humidity and cloud cover in the region. Recent patterns reinforce this: the preceding days have featured similar muggy conditions with highs in the low 30s°C and lows holding at 27°C amid scattered precipitation, without significant intrusions of cooler air or clear-sky radiative losses that could push minima lower. August climatology shows average lows around 24–25°C, but the current warm, moist regime—driven by regional flow patterns—keeps values higher. Model agreement across sources leaves little room for outliers like 26°C or below (combined ~6% probability) or 29°C and above (under 5%), though minor revisions in timing or intensity of showers could still shift the exact minimum within the narrow 27–28°C range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 28?
27°C 55%
28°C 41%
25°C 4%
26°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
4%
27°C
55%
28°C
41%
29°C
4%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 55%
28°C 41%
25°C 4%
26°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
23°C or below
$60 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$111 Vol.
1%
25°C
$33 Vol.
4%
26°C
$33 Vol.
4%
27°C
$543 Vol.
55%
28°C
$367 Vol.
41%
29°C
$33 Vol.
4%
30°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$60 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$172 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$197 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a minimum temperature of 27–28°C in Shanghai on August 28, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (27°C at 55.5% implied probability, 28°C at 38.5%).**
Official and model guidance, including data from Chinese meteorological services and international providers like the Met Office, consistently project overnight lows near 27°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light rain or showers and light easterly to southeasterly winds. These conditions limit radiative cooling, sustaining elevated nighttime temperatures typical of late-summer humidity and cloud cover in the region.
Recent patterns reinforce this: the preceding days have featured similar muggy conditions with highs in the low 30s°C and lows holding at 27°C amid scattered precipitation, without significant intrusions of cooler air or clear-sky radiative losses that could push minima lower. August climatology shows average lows around 24–25°C, but the current warm, moist regime—driven by regional flow patterns—keeps values higher.
Model agreement across sources leaves little room for outliers like 26°C or below (combined ~6% probability) or 29°C and above (under 5%), though minor revisions in timing or intensity of showers could still shift the exact minimum within the narrow 27–28°C range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,662End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a minimum temperature of 27–28°C in Shanghai on August 28, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (27°C at 55.5% implied probability, 28°C at 38.5%).**
Official and model guidance, including data from Chinese meteorological services and international providers like the Met Office, consistently project overnight lows near 27°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light rain or showers and light easterly to southeasterly winds. These conditions limit radiative cooling, sustaining elevated nighttime temperatures typical of late-summer humidity and cloud cover in the region.
Recent patterns reinforce this: the preceding days have featured similar muggy conditions with highs in the low 30s°C and lows holding at 27°C amid scattered precipitation, without significant intrusions of cooler air or clear-sky radiative losses that could push minima lower. August climatology shows average lows around 24–25°C, but the current warm, moist regime—driven by regional flow patterns—keeps values higher.
Model agreement across sources leaves little room for outliers like 26°C or below (combined ~6% probability) or 29°C and above (under 5%), though minor revisions in timing or intensity of showers could still shift the exact minimum within the narrow 27–28°C range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,662End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological sources points to a minimum temperature of 27–28°C in Shanghai on August 28, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading outcomes (27°C at 55.5% implied probability, 28°C at 38.5%).** Official and model guidance, including data from Chinese meteorological services and international providers like the Met Office, consistently project overnight lows near 27°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light rain or showers and light easterly to southeasterly winds. These conditions limit radiative cooling, sustaining elevated nighttime temperatures typical of late-summer humidity and cloud cover in the region. Recent patterns reinforce this: the preceding days have featured similar muggy conditions with highs in the low 30s°C and lows holding at 27°C amid scattered precipitation, without significant intrusions of cooler air or clear-sky radiative losses that could push minima lower. August climatology shows average lows around 24–25°C, but the current warm, moist regime—driven by regional flow patterns—keeps values higher. Model agreement across sources leaves little room for outliers like 26°C or below (combined ~6% probability) or 29°C and above (under 5%), though minor revisions in timing or intensity of showers could still shift the exact minimum within the narrow 27–28°C range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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