**Persistent exceptional drought (D4) conditions across the Intermountain West and scattered Plains/South locations, driven by multi-month precipitation deficits, record or near-record warmth, and elevated evapotranspiration rates, position 10 or more states as the leading market outcome at 62.5% implied probability.** As of mid-September 2026 USDM data, D4 covers about 1.5% of the contiguous U.S., concentrated in states including Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, Oregon, and parts of the central/southern Plains plus isolated Southeast pockets such as North Carolina, with flash drought expansions in the South-Central U.S. adding pressure but limited new D4 formation. Recent scattered precipitation has eased some long-term deficits in Colorado and the Pacific Northwest while above-normal temperatures sustain stress elsewhere; the next weekly USDM map, incorporating data through mid-September, will resolve the count amid ongoing model uncertainty in steering patterns and soil moisture recovery. Trader consensus reflects the current geographic footprint of verified D4 areas exceeding lower bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 15, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 15, 2026?
10 or more states 63%
7-9 states 38%
5-6 states 37.5%
1-2 states 37.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
0 states
37%
1-2 states
37%
3-4 states
37%
5-6 states
38%
7-9 states
38%
10 or more states
63%
10 or more states 63%
7-9 states 38%
5-6 states 37.5%
1-2 states 37.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
0 states
$21 Vol.
37%
1-2 states
$113 Vol.
37%
3-4 states
$113 Vol.
37%
5-6 states
$52 Vol.
38%
7-9 states
$0 Vol.
38%
10 or more states
$0 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Persistent exceptional drought (D4) conditions across the Intermountain West and scattered Plains/South locations, driven by multi-month precipitation deficits, record or near-record warmth, and elevated evapotranspiration rates, position 10 or more states as the leading market outcome at 62.5% implied probability.**
As of mid-September 2026 USDM data, D4 covers about 1.5% of the contiguous U.S., concentrated in states including Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, Oregon, and parts of the central/southern Plains plus isolated Southeast pockets such as North Carolina, with flash drought expansions in the South-Central U.S. adding pressure but limited new D4 formation. Recent scattered precipitation has eased some long-term deficits in Colorado and the Pacific Northwest while above-normal temperatures sustain stress elsewhere; the next weekly USDM map, incorporating data through mid-September, will resolve the count amid ongoing model uncertainty in steering patterns and soil moisture recovery. Trader consensus reflects the current geographic footprint of verified D4 areas exceeding lower bins.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$299End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Persistent exceptional drought (D4) conditions across the Intermountain West and scattered Plains/South locations, driven by multi-month precipitation deficits, record or near-record warmth, and elevated evapotranspiration rates, position 10 or more states as the leading market outcome at 62.5% implied probability.**
As of mid-September 2026 USDM data, D4 covers about 1.5% of the contiguous U.S., concentrated in states including Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, Oregon, and parts of the central/southern Plains plus isolated Southeast pockets such as North Carolina, with flash drought expansions in the South-Central U.S. adding pressure but limited new D4 formation. Recent scattered precipitation has eased some long-term deficits in Colorado and the Pacific Northwest while above-normal temperatures sustain stress elsewhere; the next weekly USDM map, incorporating data through mid-September, will resolve the count amid ongoing model uncertainty in steering patterns and soil moisture recovery. Trader consensus reflects the current geographic footprint of verified D4 areas exceeding lower bins.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$299End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent exceptional drought (D4) conditions across the Intermountain West and scattered Plains/South locations, driven by multi-month precipitation deficits, record or near-record warmth, and elevated evapotranspiration rates, position 10 or more states as the leading market outcome at 62.5% implied probability.** As of mid-September 2026 USDM data, D4 covers about 1.5% of the contiguous U.S., concentrated in states including Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, Oregon, and parts of the central/southern Plains plus isolated Southeast pockets such as North Carolina, with flash drought expansions in the South-Central U.S. adding pressure but limited new D4 formation. Recent scattered precipitation has eased some long-term deficits in Colorado and the Pacific Northwest while above-normal temperatures sustain stress elsewhere; the next weekly USDM map, incorporating data through mid-September, will resolve the count amid ongoing model uncertainty in steering patterns and soil moisture recovery. Trader consensus reflects the current geographic footprint of verified D4 areas exceeding lower bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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