The Bahia 2026 gubernatorial race remains tightly contested between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), with recent Genial/Quaest and other surveys showing a technical tie or single-digit margins in first-round and runoff scenarios. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings in the mid-50s to low-60s, incumbency advantages on infrastructure and education, and PT organizational strength in the state, while Neto draws support from his record as Salvador mayor, alignment with the right-wing bloc, and voter concerns over security and economic issues. The rematch dynamic, combined with national shifts after UNIÃO’s break from the Lula administration, has kept trader consensus balanced near even odds. Further separation could emerge from intensified campaigning ahead of the October 4 first round, additional debates, or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJerônimo Rodrigues 53%
ACM Neto 49%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$118,103 Vol.
$118,103 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
53%
ACM Neto
49%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 53%
ACM Neto 49%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$118,103 Vol.
$118,103 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$37,601 Vol.
53%
ACM Neto
$40,510 Vol.
49%
Kleber Rosa
$12,814 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$10,920 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia 2026 gubernatorial race remains tightly contested between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), with recent Genial/Quaest and other surveys showing a technical tie or single-digit margins in first-round and runoff scenarios. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings in the mid-50s to low-60s, incumbency advantages on infrastructure and education, and PT organizational strength in the state, while Neto draws support from his record as Salvador mayor, alignment with the right-wing bloc, and voter concerns over security and economic issues. The rematch dynamic, combined with national shifts after UNIÃO’s break from the Lula administration, has kept trader consensus balanced near even odds. Further separation could emerge from intensified campaigning ahead of the October 4 first round, additional debates, or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volume
$118,103End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Bahia 2026 gubernatorial race remains tightly contested between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), with recent Genial/Quaest and other surveys showing a technical tie or single-digit margins in first-round and runoff scenarios. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings in the mid-50s to low-60s, incumbency advantages on infrastructure and education, and PT organizational strength in the state, while Neto draws support from his record as Salvador mayor, alignment with the right-wing bloc, and voter concerns over security and economic issues. The rematch dynamic, combined with national shifts after UNIÃO’s break from the Lula administration, has kept trader consensus balanced near even odds. Further separation could emerge from intensified campaigning ahead of the October 4 first round, additional debates, or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$118,103End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia 2026 gubernatorial race remains tightly contested between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil), with recent Genial/Quaest and other surveys showing a technical tie or single-digit margins in first-round and runoff scenarios. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings in the mid-50s to low-60s, incumbency advantages on infrastructure and education, and PT organizational strength in the state, while Neto draws support from his record as Salvador mayor, alignment with the right-wing bloc, and voter concerns over security and economic issues. The rematch dynamic, combined with national shifts after UNIÃO’s break from the Lula administration, has kept trader consensus balanced near even odds. Further separation could emerge from intensified campaigning ahead of the October 4 first round, additional debates, or shifts in turnout among key voting blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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