Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding lead in Rondônia for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent alignment with Bolsonarismo. A July 2026 Real Time Big Data poll showed him at 58% against Lula at 25%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema and others in single digits, a sharp reversal from earlier June surveys. Rondônia delivered Jair Bolsonaro 70.6% of the valid vote in 2022, and Flávio’s nomination as PL standard-bearer, backed by his father’s endorsement, has consolidated that base ahead of the October 4 vote. Late campaign developments, shifts among undecided voters, or stronger regional pushes by national challengers remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 97.4%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$12,992 Vol.
$12,992 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Samara
1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Lula
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Zema
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.4%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$12,992 Vol.
$12,992 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$7,561 Vol.
97%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$451 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$381 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$491 Vol.
1%
Samara
$461 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$411 Vol.
<1%
Lula
$577 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$430 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$401 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$441 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$471 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$471 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$444 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding lead in Rondônia for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent alignment with Bolsonarismo. A July 2026 Real Time Big Data poll showed him at 58% against Lula at 25%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema and others in single digits, a sharp reversal from earlier June surveys. Rondônia delivered Jair Bolsonaro 70.6% of the valid vote in 2022, and Flávio’s nomination as PL standard-bearer, backed by his father’s endorsement, has consolidated that base ahead of the October 4 vote. Late campaign developments, shifts among undecided voters, or stronger regional pushes by national challengers remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$12,992End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding lead in Rondônia for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent alignment with Bolsonarismo. A July 2026 Real Time Big Data poll showed him at 58% against Lula at 25%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema and others in single digits, a sharp reversal from earlier June surveys. Rondônia delivered Jair Bolsonaro 70.6% of the valid vote in 2022, and Flávio’s nomination as PL standard-bearer, backed by his father’s endorsement, has consolidated that base ahead of the October 4 vote. Late campaign developments, shifts among undecided voters, or stronger regional pushes by national challengers remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$12,992End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holds a commanding lead in Rondônia for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state’s consistent alignment with Bolsonarismo. A July 2026 Real Time Big Data poll showed him at 58% against Lula at 25%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema and others in single digits, a sharp reversal from earlier June surveys. Rondônia delivered Jair Bolsonaro 70.6% of the valid vote in 2022, and Flávio’s nomination as PL standard-bearer, backed by his father’s endorsement, has consolidated that base ahead of the October 4 vote. Late campaign developments, shifts among undecided voters, or stronger regional pushes by national challengers remain the main variables that could narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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