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icon for Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place

icon for Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place

Capitão Wagner 41%

Luizianne 33%

Cid Gomes 20%

Reginaldo 5.4%

Polymarket
NEW

Capitão Wagner 41%

Luizianne 33%

Cid Gomes 20%

Reginaldo 5.4%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Capitão Wagner

Capitão Wagner

$4,768 Vol.

41%

icon for Luizianne

Luizianne

$938 Vol.

33%

icon for Cid Gomes

Cid Gomes

$700 Vol.

27%

icon for Reginaldo

Reginaldo

$374 Vol.

5%

icon for Alcides Fernandes

Alcides Fernandes

$241 Vol.

2%

icon for Catarina Matos

Catarina Matos

$869 Vol.

2%

icon for Lino Alves

Lino Alves

$328 Vol.

1%

icon for Guilherme Theophilo

Guilherme Theophilo

$179 Vol.

1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July and August 2026 shows Cid Gomes (PSB) consistently leading intentions for Ceará's two Senate seats, leaving a tight contest for second place between Capitão Wagner (União) and Luizianne Lins (Rede). Multiple surveys, including Ipsos-Ipec, Datafolha, Real Time Big Data, and Genial/Quaest, place the pair within margins of error at 16-22% each when combining first and second preferences, with other names like Alcides Fernandes trailing further behind. This positioning stems from overlapping voter bases in key regions, established name recognition from prior federal and state roles, and limited differentiation on local priorities such as economic development and federal transfers. The October election timeline and potential shifts in alliances or turnout among undecided voters could widen the gap between the main contenders for the remaining seat.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$8,399
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July and August 2026 shows Cid Gomes (PSB) consistently leading intentions for Ceará's two Senate seats, leaving a tight contest for second place between Capitão Wagner (União) and Luizianne Lins (Rede). Multiple surveys, including Ipsos-Ipec, Datafolha, Real Time Big Data, and Genial/Quaest, place the pair within margins of error at 16-22% each when combining first and second preferences, with other names like Alcides Fernandes trailing further behind. This positioning stems from overlapping voter bases in key regions, established name recognition from prior federal and state roles, and limited differentiation on local priorities such as economic development and federal transfers. The October election timeline and potential shifts in alliances or turnout among undecided voters could widen the gap between the main contenders for the remaining seat.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$8,399
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Capitão Wagner" at 41%, followed by "Luizianne" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place" is "Capitão Wagner" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Luizianne" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Ceará Senate Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.