Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data places Michelle Bolsonaro in the lead for one Federal District Senate seat on October 4, while Leila do Vôlei, Bia Kicis, and Erika Kokay remain clustered within the margin of error for the second position amid 50-67% undecided voters. Trader consensus favors Leila do Vôlei for second place, reflecting her incumbency, established name recognition, and consistent second-place showings in surveys. The race stays tight due to fragmented opposition support across parties and limited recent shifts in voter intentions. Further consolidation of undecided voters, additional polls, or campaign events before the October deadline could widen gaps among the contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLeila do Vôlei 52%
Erika Kokay 23%
Bia Kicis 22%
Michelle Bolsonaro 5.5%
$23,813 Vol.
$23,813 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
52%
Erika Kokay
23%
Bia Kicis
22%
Michelle Bolsonaro
5%
David Horn
<1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Marley
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Leila do Vôlei 52%
Erika Kokay 23%
Bia Kicis 22%
Michelle Bolsonaro 5.5%
$23,813 Vol.
$23,813 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
$5,573 Vol.
52%
Erika Kokay
$2,777 Vol.
23%
Bia Kicis
$6,570 Vol.
22%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$3,316 Vol.
5%
David Horn
$1,739 Vol.
<1%
Avenir Rosa
$437 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$381 Vol.
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$878 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$546 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$392 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$407 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$381 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$417 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data places Michelle Bolsonaro in the lead for one Federal District Senate seat on October 4, while Leila do Vôlei, Bia Kicis, and Erika Kokay remain clustered within the margin of error for the second position amid 50-67% undecided voters. Trader consensus favors Leila do Vôlei for second place, reflecting her incumbency, established name recognition, and consistent second-place showings in surveys. The race stays tight due to fragmented opposition support across parties and limited recent shifts in voter intentions. Further consolidation of undecided voters, additional polls, or campaign events before the October deadline could widen gaps among the contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$23,813End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data places Michelle Bolsonaro in the lead for one Federal District Senate seat on October 4, while Leila do Vôlei, Bia Kicis, and Erika Kokay remain clustered within the margin of error for the second position amid 50-67% undecided voters. Trader consensus favors Leila do Vôlei for second place, reflecting her incumbency, established name recognition, and consistent second-place showings in surveys. The race stays tight due to fragmented opposition support across parties and limited recent shifts in voter intentions. Further consolidation of undecided voters, additional polls, or campaign events before the October deadline could widen gaps among the contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$23,813End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data places Michelle Bolsonaro in the lead for one Federal District Senate seat on October 4, while Leila do Vôlei, Bia Kicis, and Erika Kokay remain clustered within the margin of error for the second position amid 50-67% undecided voters. Trader consensus favors Leila do Vôlei for second place, reflecting her incumbency, established name recognition, and consistent second-place showings in surveys. The race stays tight due to fragmented opposition support across parties and limited recent shifts in voter intentions. Further consolidation of undecided voters, additional polls, or campaign events before the October deadline could widen gaps among the contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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