Recent official forecasts from multiple numerical weather models indicate a high around 23–24°C in Milan on September 18, driven by easterly flow and increased cloud cover following showers on the 17th. This pattern suppresses daytime heating compared with the warmer, sunnier conditions observed earlier in the week. Model consensus shows limited afternoon warming under mostly cloudy skies and light winds, with only modest potential for brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 25°C. Traders appear to weigh this guidance heavily, assigning the strongest implied probability to 23°C while leaving room for minor forecast adjustments as new model runs and observations arrive closer to the date. Historical September maxima in Milan average near 22–24°C, providing additional context for the current positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on September 18?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 18?
23°C 38%
25°C or higher 29%
24°C 26%
22°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
4%
21°C
10%
22°C
22%
23°C
38%
24°C
26%
25°C or higher
29%
23°C 38%
25°C or higher 29%
24°C 26%
22°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
15°C or below
$45 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$13 Vol.
1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
4%
21°C
$23 Vol.
10%
22°C
$12 Vol.
22%
23°C
$10 Vol.
38%
24°C
$5 Vol.
26%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from multiple numerical weather models indicate a high around 23–24°C in Milan on September 18, driven by easterly flow and increased cloud cover following showers on the 17th. This pattern suppresses daytime heating compared with the warmer, sunnier conditions observed earlier in the week. Model consensus shows limited afternoon warming under mostly cloudy skies and light winds, with only modest potential for brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 25°C. Traders appear to weigh this guidance heavily, assigning the strongest implied probability to 23°C while leaving room for minor forecast adjustments as new model runs and observations arrive closer to the date. Historical September maxima in Milan average near 22–24°C, providing additional context for the current positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$482End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from multiple numerical weather models indicate a high around 23–24°C in Milan on September 18, driven by easterly flow and increased cloud cover following showers on the 17th. This pattern suppresses daytime heating compared with the warmer, sunnier conditions observed earlier in the week. Model consensus shows limited afternoon warming under mostly cloudy skies and light winds, with only modest potential for brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 25°C. Traders appear to weigh this guidance heavily, assigning the strongest implied probability to 23°C while leaving room for minor forecast adjustments as new model runs and observations arrive closer to the date. Historical September maxima in Milan average near 22–24°C, providing additional context for the current positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$482End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from multiple numerical weather models indicate a high around 23–24°C in Milan on September 18, driven by easterly flow and increased cloud cover following showers on the 17th. This pattern suppresses daytime heating compared with the warmer, sunnier conditions observed earlier in the week. Model consensus shows limited afternoon warming under mostly cloudy skies and light winds, with only modest potential for brief clearing that could allow a brief spike toward 25°C. Traders appear to weigh this guidance heavily, assigning the strongest implied probability to 23°C while leaving room for minor forecast adjustments as new model runs and observations arrive closer to the date. Historical September maxima in Milan average near 22–24°C, providing additional context for the current positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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